Now before you go off on me for piling on, it’s not Zaun who’s the idiot, it’s the six people who he beat in the 3rd District Congressional primary. I know that everyone hates negative campaigning, but the reason Zaun has to deal with these attacks from Boswell now is because none of his opponents brought them up in the primary.

One of the necessary functions of a primary is to properly vet the candidates. That obviously didn’t happen, and now Zaun has to deal with Boswell and the Democrats airing his dirty laundry now instead of months ago. Getting attacked on these issues now hurts worse that had this things been brought up when nobody was paying attention during a primary

I know everyone felt great about how all the 3rd CD candidates treated each other, but they are idiots and did the nominee a disservice. If they had raised these issues before the primary Zaun would either not me the nominee or he wouldn’t have to talk about this crap now, because he would have had to explain these things before the primary. The story would have been dead as soon as he won his primary.

Chet Culver: Culver’s campaign thinks that they are going to score points against Terry Branstad by demanding him to tell people what I-Jobs projects he would cut. It’s not a bad idea on Culver’s part, the only problem is that Branstad campaign is smarter than that. They are very wisely showing people who much debt they will have to pay back in exchange for the thousands of dollars Chet is in the area passing out.

Culver is an idiot for wanting to talk about I-Jobs. Dude should look at his press clippings from the past two months.

El Pollo Hombre: Once again Mark Chelgren, who is running for Keith Kreiman, makes the list, but isn’t an idiot. The Des Moines Register ran a story exposing Chelgren’s alter ego – RAGBRAI’s Chickenman.

For those of you who don’t know, Chickenman is known for his spontaneous beer bashes along the route. His bus is really just one huge beer truck. The Register claims that he once bought 70 kegs. Lets just pray to God it wasn’t all Keystone. The Register also noted that Chickenman is also known for riding nude for an hour or so everyday during his trip across Iowa.

Besides the fact that riding a bicycle nude is kinda dangerous, I guess you can say he’s offering the voters more transparency than they are getting with Kreiman.

I also think its hard not to like this guy. Just read what he told Jennifer Jacobs of the Register.

“Chickenman was a wonderful persona when I’d go on vacation and meet people. In my life now, even though I still go on RAGBRAI and I’m still Chickenman, I am first and foremost a father and a businessman, and I take that seriously.”

I’m sure Gronstal and Kreiman are getting a laugh out of this story, but I don’t know if Chelgren being outed as Chickenman is going to hurt him, in fact it might help him. People are sick and tired of politicians who are unresponsive or think too highly of themselves. This might be a time when the voters send a message this fall and send a guy like Chelgren to Des Moines. If that happens, I’m going to apply to be his clerk.

Thanks to Chelgren, I now know what to expect if I ever run for office. It is my hope that he breaks that glass ceiling for all those who suffer by having a cool alter ego/

Find the Culver/Judge release here:

However, the total share of actual I-JOBS debt Lucas County is shackled with equals $5.2 million, or nearly 10 times the amount of grants they highlighted.

“It’s disingenuous for the Culver campaign to claim Terry Branstad is ‘against’ Lucas County on a day he is there, meeting with residents of the county, during the exact time when Chet Culver shackles them with a $5.2 million debt mandate from Des Moines.” said Branstad 2010 campaign manager Jeff Boeyink. “This is a continuing pattern of deception and misinformation in which this administration continues to engage. Lobbing press releases and debt from Des Moines is not real leadership.”

Here are the figures:

IJOBs debt:               $1,700,000,000

Iowa Population:    3,007,856 (US Census Bureau, 2009)

Per person IJOBs debt:  $565.18

Lucas County Population:  9,179 (US Census Bureau, 2009)

$565.18 x 9,179 = $5,187,787.22 (approximately $5.2 million over the next 23 years)

“Lucas County residents’ share of the IJOBs debt is approximately $5.2 million over the next 23 years.  A high price to pay for $563,311.54 in road repairs,” concluded Boeyink.

Find the Culver/Judge release here: http://www.iowapolitics.com/index.iml?Article=207026

However, the total share of actual I-JOBS debt Ringgold County is shackled with equals $2.8 million.

“It’s disingenuous for the Culver campaign to claim Terry Branstad is ‘against’ Ringgold County on a day he is there, meeting with residents of the county, during the exact time when Chet Culver shackles them with a $2.8 million debt mandate from Des Moines.” said Branstad 2010 campaign manager Jeff Boeyink. “This is a continuing pattern of deception and misinformation in which this administration continues to engage. Lobbing press releases and debt from Des Moines is not real leadership.”

Here are the figures:

I-JOBS debt: $1,700,000,000

Iowa Population: 3,007,856 (US Census Bureau, 2009: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/19000.html)

Per person I-JOBS debt: $565.18

Ringgold County Population: 4,944 (http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/19/19159.html)

$565.18 x 4,944 = $2,794,249.92 (approximately $2.8 million)

“Ringgold County residents’ share of the IJOBs debt is approximately $2.8 million over the next 23 years. A high price to pay for $17,655 in road repairs,” concluded Boeyink.

Failor continued, “When is Governor Culver going to admit his failed leadership has caused the state to face a one-billion dollar budget gap? A billion dollar budget gap is more than a mistake.”

“Governor Culver needs to admit to Iowa taxpayers all the ways his leadership has failed us. What about the fact there are more Iowans out of work today than there were last year? Where are the jobs the Governor said were to be created from the I-Jobs Program? How about how Governor Culver has failed Iowans by causing property taxes to increase by not fulfilling commitments to schools and local governments?”

“Even more, Governor Culver has put Iowa taxpayers into generational debt. This flies in the face of Iowa values. I doubt any Iowa families have willingly put their own families into debt which will take an entire generation to pay off. With mistakes like this, I hope Governor Culver is not in charge of his family budget.”

Failor finished, “Why is Governor Culver not telling Iowans how he is going to correct his mistakes? Culver’s lack of management of our state has plummeted Iowa taxpayers into a deep pool of debt and hard-working Iowa families cannot afford any more of his incompetence.”

Photo by Dave Davidson

“I also want you to know that we’ve worked very hard.  I’ve been to Cedar Rapids, Iowa, nearly 100 times fighting on flood-recovery efforts and I have continued to do everything in my power every day as governor to get the job done and to get this state moving forward, and so despite some of the mistakes, despite some of the challenges in historic proportions that we’re dealing with, we’re still moving Iowa forward.”

“I want to say that some of that criticism is justified and that we have made our fair share of mistakes, and I take full responsibility for those things that have happened in various state agencies, that happened on my watch and I take responsibility for those mistakes that have been made.”

It seems to me that Culver wants to be that pudgy kid who isn’t that smart or athletically gifted that people feel sorry for.  The problem Culver faces is that Iowans just want someone who can get the job done.  He of all people should realize that while people might feel sorry for that pudgy kid, they don’t let him play quarterback.

As Iowa’s governor, Culver has grown the size of government, carved out special rights for people based on behavior, raised taxes, forced local governments to raise property taxes, forced schools to spend their reserve funds, mismanaged the state budget, and indebted future generations of Iowans. If that wasn’t bad enough, his administration has been plagued by numerous scandals that have costs taxpayers money.

I’m glad the guy is admitting that he has made some mistakes, but that will do nothing to help him with his re-election campaign this fall.  Culver has proved beyond a reasonable doubt that he is unfit and unable to lead the state of Iowa.

It seems like Culver and his campaign team are beginning to realize what regular Iowans figured out a year ago – that new leadership is needed Des Moines.  At this point Culver would be better off just traveling the state on a goodbye tour and start packing up some things in his office.

Even thought his favorability rating is better in Iowa than across the nation, the 34 percent of people who have a strongly unfavorable view of him out numbers the 29 percent who strongly favor him.  That means Obama’s numbers are not going up any time soon.

The only Democrat in Iowa who had a higher unfavorable rating than Obama’s 46 percent in the poll was Governor Chet Culver.  That spells trouble for Democrats at the ballot box this November.

TheIowaRepublican.com poll also contained other questions, which indicate that Iowans’ affection for the President has diminished since taking office.

Obama Down Seven Points on Generic Presidential Ballot.

TheIowaRepublican.com poll asked registered and likely voters who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today.  Forty-five percent of respondents said they would vote for the Republican presidential candidate, while 38 percent would vote to re-elect President Obama.  Sixteen percent of respondents were undecided and one percent refused to answer.

No question better illustrates the stark difference between his likeability as a candidate in 2008 and the frustration that Iowans have toward President Obama as the leader of the country.

Without his historic win in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, it is likely that Obama wouldn’t have won the Democratic nomination, and thus, wouldn’t have been elected president.  Obama being down seven points in a generic ballot in a state like Iowa is shocking and should have any potential Republican candidates salivating.

The poll also sought to find out whether a visit from the President actually helps those for whom he is campaigning.

Obama’s Support On The Campaign Trail Hurts More than it Helps.

TheIowaRepublican.com Poll asked whether or not those surveyed would be more or less likely to vote for Governor Chet Culver if President Obama came to Iowa to campaign for him.  Sixty-nine percent of respondents said that it would not affect their vote.  Only nine percent would be more likely to vote for Culver, while 20 percent would be more likely to vote against Governor Culver.

Some Democrats running for re-election around country have begun to distance themselves from President Obama and other party leaders.  TheIowaRepublican.com poll confirms their suspicions that being too cozy with the President might hurt them with independent voters this fall.  Regardless of the negatives that Obama might bring, all incumbent Presidents bring with them the ability to raise massive amounts of money.  That means candidates who are desperate to raise money might not be able to tell the President, thanks but no thanks.

Iowans Favor the Repeal of Obamacare.

When asked whether or not the healthcare reform legislation that was passed by Congress and the Obama administration should be allowed to take effect or be repealed for more limited reforms, 49 percent of respondents said they wanted it repealed while 37 percent wanted to see it take effect.  Only eleven percent of those surveyed were undecided, and four percent either refused or said neither.

The cumulation of the poll questions paints a troubling picture for Obama, but the results were equally disturbing for Iowa Democrats.  Iowa Democrats have a real problem with the top of their ticket this year.  With Governor Culver’s high negatives and poor head-to-head polling numbers combined with Roxanne Conlin’s anemic campaign against Senator Grassley, they desperately need something to energize voters heading going into this fall’s elections.  Obama’s popularity is plummeting at the time when Iowa Democrats need him the most.

About the Poll:

TheIowaRepublican.com commissioned the poll in conjunction with Concordia Group LLC, an Iowa-based public affairs company.  The poll surveyed 500 likely voters across the state and has a margin of error of 4.39%.  The poll was conducted by Voter Consumer Research, a highly respected polling firm based in Washington D.C. All interviews were conducted via telephone with trained interviewers at Voter Consumer Research’s phone center in Houston, Texas, between July 25th and July 28th.

Photo by Dave Davidson

For a time this summer it looked as if there could be a strong independent candidate running for governor here in Iowa.  After losing the Republican nomination for governor, Bob Vander Plaats contemplated an independent run.  Last week, Vander Plaats put an end to the speculation of a third party run when he announced that he would instead focus on a campaign to oust the three Iowa Supreme Court Justices who are up for retention this fall.

The thought of Vander Plaats running as an independent in the general elections was something that captivated the media and made Iowa Democrats drool.  With Governor Chet Culver’s poor standing in the polls, a third party run by Vander Plaats might have been Culver’s only hope of being re-elected this fall.

Intrigued by the potential impact Vander Plaats might have had on the race, TheIowaRepublican.com included a question in its Battleground Poll to see what kind of impact he would have had on the race.

The poll asked, “If the choice for Governor were between Terry Branstad, the Republican, Chet Culver, the Democrat, and Bob Vander Plaats running as an Independent, who would you vote for?”  Thirty-nine percent supported Branstad, thirty percent supported Culver, and nineteen percent supported Vander Plaats.  Ten percent of those surveyed said that they didn’t know.

The poll shows that, had Vander Plaats ran as an independent, he would have taken enough support from Branstad to give Culver a shot, albeit a slim one, at winning re-election.  Still, Branstad still beats Culver by a healthy nine-point margin, something that should not be overlooked.

The fact that Branstad maintained a nine-point lead over Culver with another Republican candidate on the ballot is shocking.  The 19 percent that Vander Plaats garnered in the poll is also impressive, and obviously Vander Plaats pulls most of his support from Branstad.  While Vander Plaats wasn’t successful in the primary, it’s clear that there is a significant portion of voters who want someone to standup and fight against the Courts.

The poll also shows us just how bad of shape Culver is in politically.  An incumbent governor getting beat by 18 points in the conventional two-way poll is devastating and a clear sign that his re-election is in serious trouble.   Now, seeing that Culver is still down nine points if there are basically two Republicans splitting the vote is simply embarrassing.

As for Branstad, his campaign should look at these numbers and take away a couple of things.  One, there is a large segment of voters who want a governor to stand up to the courts.  While people shouldn’t expect him to suddenly pick up Vander Plaats’ ever-evolving executive order or join the anti-retention campaign, Branstad can and should tell people what he would do if faced with a similar situation as governor.

Second, the poll shows that, regardless of how many Republican candidates are in the field, voters are so disillusioned with Culver that the Republicans splitting their vote doesn’t really alter the race.  Additionally, the Branstad campaign should now realize Vander Plaats’ strength and appeal to some voters and should also be very thankful that he’s not running as an Independent.

For Vander Plaats, the poll should confirm his decision not to run as an independent.  While garnering 19 percent in the poll is impressive, he would have occupied the role as the spoiler.  At his press conference a week ago, Vander Plaats said that he didn’t see anyway that he could run for governor as an independent and win.  He was right.

Still, Vander Plaats does have a significant following across the state.  If he is able to motivate his supporters this fall, his initiative to oust the three Supreme Court Justices who are up for retention could be successful.

Note:  The poll was conducted between July 25^th and July 28^th, before Vander Plaats announced that he wouldn’t run as an independent.  For more information about the poll, click here.

·        Iowa’s debt is $3.2 billion

·        Iowa’s debt is $1,050 per capita

·        A family of four has more than $4,000 in debt

·        The real debt is 14 times larger than Gov. Culver’s misleading release

“Gov. Culver deliberately released a deceptive and misleading report in an attempt to hide Iowa’s true debt,” said Branstad 2010 campaign manager Jeff Boeyink. “Iowans are shackled with a debt load that is in reality 14 times greater than what Gov. Culver asserted it was just last week.

“Chet Culver should look in the mirror and decide if he will continue to mislead Iowans with just 12 weeks left in his campaign, or if he will come clean with Iowans and attempt to honestly deal with the state’s finances and this crushing generational debt. The choice is his.”

The Republican Party of Iowa today called Iowans’ attention to a report by State Auditor David Vaudt, the taxpayers’ watchdog. The report confirms what Republicans asserted last week: Governor Chet Culver isn’t telling the full story about Iowa’s debt.

Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn said, “Iowans are seeing a pattern of deceit from Chet Culver. Last week he touted a report on Iowa’s debt, which Republicans rightly pointed out did not include his $1.7 billion I-JOBS debt. Now Auditor Vaudt confirms the figures Culver celebrated are a drastic misrepresentation of taxpayers’ actual debt. Iowans need a leader that will be honest and straight with them. Iowans need Terry Branstad.”

Photo by Dave Davidson

Despite having to endure two strong primary challenges in his political career, Branstad has shown an ability to remain focused on his main goal – winning in November.  Branstad has also shown consistency in his 2010 campaign when you look at how he fairs in various polls, which all point to him continuing his winning ways.

The recent TIR Battleground Poll shows Branstad leading Governor Chet Culver 53 percent to 35 percent.  Branstad’s 18 point lead over Culver is impressive considering that the Democratic Governor’s Association spent almost a million dollars on ads attacking him.  Governor Culver has also spent significant funds attacking Branstad on his management of the state.

Tim Albrecht, Governor Branstad’s communications director, commented on the poll results saying, “Iowans want a proven, effective manager like Terry Branstad in the governor’s office.  Iowans all across the state continue to respond positively to Gov. Branstad’s optimistic message of job creation and fixing the state’s finances. However, this campaign will not rest until after November 2 and will continue working hard for every vote.  The only poll that counts is the one taken on Election Day.”

Branstad has proven to be a consistent performer in the three TIR Battleground Polls that have been conducted in the past 13 months.  In July of 2009, Branstad led Culver 53 to 37 percent.  His 16-point advantage over Culver occurred before he was even an official candidate.

In February of 2010, the TIR poll showed Branstad leading Culver by staggering 29-point margin.  His 57 to 28 point lead over Culver in February could have been attributed to the negative press Culver received during the legislative session.  That poll also coincided with Branstad’s official announcement.

The first TIR poll that was conducted in June of 2009 showed Branstad with a 16 point lead over Culver.  At the time, many believed that Branstad’s numbers had nowhere to go but down, but they have held steady.  While there is no doubt that the gubernatorial race will tighten up as the general election approaches, numerous polls have shown Branstad consistently polling at or around 53 percent.

There have been 13 general election gubernatorial polls in Iowa since June of 2009.  When you average all of them out, it shows Branstad leading Culver 53.3 percent to 35 percent, with a spread of 18.3 percent.  The new TIR Battleground Poll mirrors the average of all of those polls.  It is remarkable that Branstad has been able to maintain his lead in the polls throughout the past year when you consider that he was attacked by his primary opponent, Governor Culver, as well as the DGA.

If the gubernatorial campaign continues at its current pace and intensity, Governor Culver doesn’t have a chance.  It is apparent that Culver and the DGA’s attacks on Branstad have not been effective.  Part of the reason why Culver’s campaign team has been unable to move the numbers is because 51 percent of those surveyed had an unfavorable impression of Culver, while Branstad is viewed favorably by 59 percent.

Culver’s is also haunted by the large number of Iowans who don’t believe that he deserves to be re-elected.  Only 32 percent of those surveyed believe that Culver deserves re-election, while 59 percent want to give someone else a chance.

Furthermore, when asked whether or not the recent news they have seen about Governor Culver has given them a more favorable or less favorable impression of him, 43 percent said that the recent news gave them a less favorable impression, while only 21 percent said more favorable.

These additional questions give us some insight into why Culver has been unable to move his head-to-head numbers against Branstad.  While Culver and the DGA have spent over a million dollars attacking Branstad, they have done a horrible job of giving Iowans any reason why Chet Culver deserves to be re-elected.

With only three months until Iowans go to the polls, the Culver campaign may not have enough time to persuade Iowans that he deserves another term.  That means Culver will have to hope that either Branstad falters down the stretch, or that one of their attacks will mortally wound him.

The more likely outcome is that Branstad maintains his position in the poll. If this holds true, the only way that the race tightens is if Culver can improve his own brand. However, even if that happens, it probably will not be enough to prevent Culver from being the first governor to lose re-election since the 1960’s.

1. I love the fact that I compared Vander Plaats to Brett Favre yesterday then a few hours later he announces a press conference.  Seriously, this might be the best analogy I’ve ever made.
2. If the news reports that say Vander Plaats is going to lead an effort to boot three of the Supreme Court Justices is true, and he’s not going to run for governor as an independent, that’s good news.  It’s good for Vander Plaats people who want a strong leader to rail against judicial activism and its good for the party establishment who don’t want Vander Plaats to peel votes away from Branstad.
3. It seems like maybe Bob read my article that talked about zero sum negotiating. All and All I think it’s a good deal.  It’s exactly what I wrote about a month a go when I said the following:The problem with Vander Plaats negotiating tactics is that he’s not willing to give anything up.  The only thing Bob is willing to give Branstad is himself, and a promise that such a move would unite the party.  Yet if you listen to Bob, he is still going to go out and campaign for his executive order and all that jazz.  So what he is really offering Branstad is a big headache.
4. I could care less if Bob ever endorses Branstad or not.  I know that will be the focus of the news coverage today, but it’s not important.  All I care about is that he doesn’t do anything to help reelect Chet Culver.That said, if the Republican Governor’s Association is pumping some coin into Vander Plaats’ effort then it tells us a couple things about Bob.

   a. While he is unwilling to publically endorse, he basically has made a deal with the RGA/Branstad campaign, so don’t be fooled.  That’s an endorsement it itself.

   b. I don’t want to be a party pooper, but if that’s the case then it really makes it seem that Vander Plaats really just wanted a paid gig.  For all you     people who listen to the radio, that’s another way to say he sold out for a seat at the table.  He wanted asked to be the LG nominee, he then ran to be the LG nominee, and now the RGA is basically going to pay him to travel around the state to talk about judges.

Today’s announcement shows us that Vander Plaats finally agreed to negotiate.  He will give up his quest for his executive order and will no longer be hostile to Branstad in exchange for some financial resources.  I think it’s a good deal.  Too bad it took till August to get it done.