Majority of Iowa Republicans are Undecided about 2012
- Tuesday, March 9, 2010, 4:30
- Iowa, News Center, Top Story
- 1,301 views
- 16 comments
An overwhelming majority of Iowa Republicans are undecided about who they would support in the 2012 First-in-the-Nation caucuses. A poll conducted for Rightosphere.com on March 4th shows that 57% of likely Republican caucus goers were undecided when asked who they would support. The early caucus poll shows that Iowa is up for grabs.
Former Arkansas Governor and Fox News personality Mike Huckabee led the field of candidates with 17% of the vote. He is followed closely by Mitt Romney with 14%, and in third place was Sarah Palin with 11% of the vote. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty garnered just 1% of the vote. The only other candidate that the survey included was former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson. Johnson received less than 1% support.
With all of the perceived frontrunners under 20%, and with the likelihood that one or more of the top three candidates will not ultimately run for president, Iowa is wide open in 2010. Mike Huckabee is the only 2008 candidate who has maintained a presence in the state. He has also made more trips to Iowa since the 2008 caucuses than any other presidential hopeful. He has visited the state two different times to sell books, and he has also traveled to the state to support Bob Vander Plaats’ campaign for governor. Vander Plaats served as Huckabee’s campaign chairman in Iowa.
Sarah Palin visited Iowa briefly as part of her book tour, and Mitt Romney is scheduled to visit the state later this month. In the lead-up to the 2008 caucuses, Romney built an impressive field organization but failed to find enough support to win the caucuses. While unsuccessful in 2008, Romney will have an advantage that he didn’t have before – a list of previous supporters to whom he can reach out.
Iowa, however, will not be an easy place for Romney to campaign. Doug Gross, his 2008 Iowa Chairman, seems to have gone sour on Romney. He also has a hostile relationship with Jan Mickelson and Steve Deace on WHO radio, Iowa’s only statewide media outlet. For Romney to be able to come into Iowa and run for president again, he will have to walk a delicate line of focusing on the fiscal conservative that he is comfortable talking about, while remaining the social conservative he told Iowans he was in 2008. If he is unable or incapable of doing that, Iowa will haunt his second attempt at the presidency.
Sarah Palin remains a mystery. Many believe that, if she did have presidential aspirations, she would have made a splash in Iowa by now. Regardless of what people think of Palin, she is incredibly popular and would have tremendous appeal to caucus goers. Her third place finish in this poll is surprising and probably not reflective of the support she would receive if she did run.
The candidates that should be the most excited about these polling numbers are people like Tim Pawlenty and the others who were not polled. With 57% of likely caucus voters undecided, there is plenty of room for candidates to come to Iowa and stake their claim. One such candidate is former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, who will headline an event tonight for the Iowa Christian Alliance in Des Moines.
The Rightosphere.com poll was conducted by Right Way Marketing. The sample size was 300 registered Republicans. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5.66%.
Photo by Dave Davidson
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About the Author
Craig Robinson has written 700 stories on this site.
Craig Robinson serves as the founder and Editor-in-Chief of TheIowaRepublican.com. Prior to founding Iowa's largest conservative news site, Robinson served as the Political Director of the Republican Party of Iowa during the 2008 Iowa Caucuses. In that capacity, Robinson planned and organized the largest political event in 2007, the Iowa Straw Poll, in Ames, Iowa. Robinson also organized the 2008 Republican caucuses in Iowa, and was later dispatched to Nevada to help with the caucuses there. Robinson cut his teeth in Iowa politics during the 2000 caucus campaign of businessman Steve Forbes and has been involved with most major campaigns in the state since then. His extensive political background and rolodex give him a unique perspective from which to monitor the political pulse of Iowa.
16 Comments on “Majority of Iowa Republicans are Undecided about 2012”
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Craig, Look at the source of the poll “Rightosphere.” It might as well be caleed “Mittosphere.” The founder of the site, Kristopher Lorilei is a huge Romney backer. He left the site Race 4 2008 because it was getting full of people who support other candidates. He started his own site and tries to be unbiased. I heard they were bragging about a cheap poll they conducted. There headline ran “Mitt in a good position in Iowa.” It is all about Romney, Romney, Romney on that site. I don’t believe that Mike Huckabee lost half of his support in Iowa. Yeah right, dream on. Let’s wait for a non-biased poll.
How come you call WHO Iowa’s only statewide media outlet. I try to get it in NW Iowa and you simply cannot. Timmy says you can get it in Sioux County, but if so, it’s only with great static. I know Craig appears on the show, and maybe this is just free advertising. This is simply another example of the rest of Iowa thumbing its nose at the margins of the state, which might as well secede to adjacent states. Frankly, NPR is the only statewide media outlet.
I’m holding out for a draft King movement.
“Pardon me” for a minute while I refute any claims of a credible chance for a Huck presidency. Arkansas to New York (Fox News studios) to Iowa is an awful long “Commute” for a guy to campaign. To all the Huckabigots who dream of another campaign I say if you love somebody “set them free”. I’ll give Huck some credit for one thing though, he plays a mean bass guitar on “Freebird”. Giggidy giggidy goo!
Actually the numbers cited are just for registered voters and here is the breakdown of likely voters: •Mike Huckabee 21%
•Mitt Romney 14%
•Sarah Palin 12%
•Tim Pawlenty 1%
•Gary Johnson 0%
•Undecided 52%
The large number of “undecided” may help Rod Roberts. There is nothing new to learn about Bransted or Vander Plaats, but most Iowans do not know Roberts.
Um…you do realize that wasn’t a poll for Governor there GrassRoots.
Ooops! Thanks for the clarification!
Huckabee being on top is pretty consistent with favorability polls. Romney being #2 is questionable. I just don’t see that.
Lots of questions & concerns about the 2012 candidates. I don’t believe Palin is running, is busy hawking her “Alaska Reality” tv show to the networks. As for Huckabee… a big question
is how much will the Clemons issue nag him on the campaign trail. Last time he was the “surprise” /darkhorse/fresh face candidate or alternative to Mitt, and he won’t sneak up on anyone this time. I think its a 40% chance that Huck runs again. Romney should hope that Obamacare fails as that would put a bigger focus on his state program in MA. He does sound more stately on the talk shows and Mitt 2.0 would probably be a better candidate than he was last time. If the unemployment rate is 8% or higher in 2012 the economy will be a major factor and that’s his strong suit. Mitch Daniels and Tim Pawlenty are the next governors to throw their hat in the sweepstakes, could one of them be the new darkhorse /fresh face/or “Huckabee” ??? Newt is making a lot of noise again…he has a great message, but he’’s the wrong messenger..that train has left the station.. Will Bobby Jindal run?
Let us please have someone new. How about Congressman King. There would be no one better.
Huckabee being on top is pretty consistent with favorability polls. Romney being #2 is questionable. I just don’t see that.”
- That’s because you’re projecting your own views onto the electorate at large.
Probably otta give up on that idea DVFO, I’m not too sure the general population of the rest of the State feels anything like you and the rather localized rethug plurality of his district, feel about him.
And he’s got enough crazy-talk on record that the rest of the nation would soon enough read and hear, which would effectively limit his appeal to only the cable-and-talk-radio junkies.
Considering how well former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee did in the 2008 Iowa Caucus, it is hard for me to believe that polls in the state would change that much to only showing 17% support today, but then again the poll only questioned 300 people and does not say what part of the state they are from and has a +/- 5.66% margin of error. Mike Huckabee is definitely the most qualified and the best choice for President in 2012.
Iowa is a sensible state. (Maybe its all the farmers.) Our capable candidates are building their understanding of America’s challenges.
I believe voters will sort through the pile and separate the wheat from the chaff. Voters will ask: Who has produced what we want in their own districts or states? Better education? Solid infrastructure (e.g. improved roads to take production to market, taxes that business can survive, encouragement to those who work)? Budgets that are met that year? TLC on the ground, not in the air? Wait and see. Facts are stubborn things.