Culver Down 20-30 Points in Register and TIR Polls
- Sunday, February 14, 2010, 7:30
- Iowa, News Center, Top Story
- 1,671 views
- 15 comments
Governor Chet Culver faces a steep challenge if he wants to win re-election this November. Two state-wide polls conducted in late January and early February show Governor Culver in serious trouble as he prepares to stand for re-election.
The polls conducted by TIR/Concordia Group and the Des Moines Register, show Governor Culver losing to both former Governor Terry Branstad and Bob Vander Plaats in head-to-head matchups. While Vander Plaats defeats Culver in head-to-head matchups in both polls, he is within the margin of error, meaning he is in a statistical dead heat with Governor Culver.
Former Governor Terry Branstad on the other hard continues to dominate Culver in the polls. In the TIR/Concordia Group poll he beats Culver 57% to 28%, an amazing 29 point lead. In the Des Moines Register’s poll, Branstad leads Culver by 20 points.
The TIR/Concordia Group poll also shows that only 28% of Iowans feel that Governor Culver deserves to be re-elected, while 65% of Iowans want to give someone new a chance to do better. What should alarm Governor Culver’s advisors is that his pathetic re-elect numbers have gotten considerably worse in just 7 months. In July of 2009, 36% of Iowans thought Culver deserved re-election, while 53% were already willing to give someone else a chance to lead the state.
Both polls also show that a majority of Iowans think Iowa is one the wrong track. In the Register’s Iowa Poll, 57% said that they believed the state was headed in the wrong direction. That number is almost identical to the 58% the TIR/Concordia Group poll showed. Iowans perception about the state has gotten worse in the last seven months. In July, the TIR/Concordia Group poll showed that 47% of people thought the state was on the wrong track. That number has gotten considerably worse in the last few months.
When you look at either the Des Moines Register or the TIR/Concordia Group polls, it becomes clear that Governor Culver’s re-election effort isn’t just going to be difficult, it might be impossible. To see any incumbent down 20 to 30 points to one of his challengers is unheard of. It’s also important to note that these numbers are not a fluke. Branstad has posted a 16-29 point lead in every public poll since the rumors of his political comeback began.
Not only does Culver lose to the top GOP gubernatorial candidates, but he has also lost the trust of his constituents. Almost 60% of Iowans think the state is headed in the wrong direction and 65% of Iowans want to give someone else a chance to lead the state.
Culver’s chances to turn his political fortunes around are limited. The clock is working against him and so is the state’s bloated budget. Balancing the budget and closing the billion dollar budget gap are simple tasks when compared to what it would take for Culver to regain the people’s trust.
About the Author
Craig Robinson has written 700 stories on this site.
Craig Robinson serves as the founder and Editor-in-Chief of TheIowaRepublican.com. Prior to founding Iowa's largest conservative news site, Robinson served as the Political Director of the Republican Party of Iowa during the 2008 Iowa Caucuses. In that capacity, Robinson planned and organized the largest political event in 2007, the Iowa Straw Poll, in Ames, Iowa. Robinson also organized the 2008 Republican caucuses in Iowa, and was later dispatched to Nevada to help with the caucuses there. Robinson cut his teeth in Iowa politics during the 2000 caucus campaign of businessman Steve Forbes and has been involved with most major campaigns in the state since then. His extensive political background and rolodex give him a unique perspective from which to monitor the political pulse of Iowa.
15 Comments on “Culver Down 20-30 Points in Register and TIR Polls”
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Again, more interesting info, along with the DSM Register polling data. 11% of TEB voters would switch to Culver if BVP is the nominee. Thanks Craig!
I don’t understand. Support for “God’s choice for Governor” Bob Panders Lots has gone down since the pharisees at IFPC endorsed him. Can someone explain?
Steve Deace says this poll isn’t possible because all the people that showed up for the caucus changed their mind from TEB to BVP and there’s a huge groundswell for BVP.
Makes you wonder whats going on over at IDP and Team Culver HQ today….they’ve already fired one campaign manager on Culver’s campaign staff…
Well, Deace has explained that, despite polls like these, the folks in the Culver camp get down on their knees and pray every night that TEB is the nominee. He’s made clear that this poll and the others like it are meaningless, and that Culver’s “only shot” is that Republicans nominate Branstad.
It’s all so simple and clear.
This confirms what I had suspected–that BVP was losing support–not gaining it.
I personally know two people who were his county chairs before who are not willing to vote for him this time. The reasons are that he is not a team player and they do not trust he can deliver on the EO promise.
Hmmm – let me get this straight. IFPC endorses with a huge rally and loads of media coverage, and Vander Plaats actually LOSES support and is statistically tied now with Culver? Wow. Tanking your own candidate. Now that’s impressive.
BVP is losing support because he no longer talks about marriage on the trail. When he talked about it, he was beating Culver.
If you do not stay true to our core principles, you lose. Plain and simple.
David: Are you sure about that? He was likely losing support before he stopped talking about marriage on the campaign trail.
It was easy to see that he was putting himself into a box. He was trying to distinguish himself from the other three by vowing to sign an EO that would magically put an end to the issue. As it became apparent that it was not going to be that simple, he either had to drop the issue or take on the exact same position as the other three. His issue was gone.
When one examines the positions of all four of our candidates, it shows that BVP is the only one who has never done anything about the issue. The other three have either taken votes to prove their commitment to the issue or in the case of Gov. Branstad, he has actually signed the Defense of Marriage Act. BVP has done nothing but talked about it. Talk is cheap, especially when it is becoming clear that BVP is someone who wants to be someone rather than someone who wants to do something.
His fundraising letter of last week showed a person so desperate to become the candidate for governor, he is willing to throw the rest of the whole Republican field and the Republican party under the bus, if need be. He had very disparaging things to say about all Republicans but if we vote for him, he is more righteous and he can personally save the Republican party.
The letter sounded strangely like Deace.
I like how you all trash BVP for talking too much about marriage and now you are trashing him for talking too little about marriage. A month ago you said BVP is a 1-issue candidate and needs to focus on other things. He did and you trash him. You can’t be pleased obviously. Also, Branstad’s support also went down from last time.
I also think Bob will get a lot of publicity when Gov. Mike Huckabee comes on February 24th.
David R… No.. BVP is still talking marriage on the trail…he’s never stopped. He’s stated clearly that he’s “betting his entire campaign” on the marriage issue. Besides..if he stops talking about marriage…his “friends” at IFPC have threatened to drop him like a hot potato.
Stacia.. BVP still is a one issue candidate. Any media that BVP gets..its focused on that issue….ie. Danny Carroll last week telling anyone who’d listen that they will “sit out” the election if TEB is the nominee. Not only foolish..but dangerous.
As for the Huckster coming in for BVP… The focus will be more on Huck..than it will be on BVP..its a risky move for Huckabee..if BVP loses the primary by a large margin, Huckabee will have the albatross of a being associated with a 3-time unsuccessful candidate.
From the Caucus Blog NY Times February 10, 2010, I wrote the following which I know believe is confirmedin the polls, A RACE TO WATCH IN IOWA. One of the races to watch nationally will be the contest for Iowa’s Governor in 2010 which will probably feature former Republican Governor Terry Branstad against current Democrat Governor Chet Culver. Branstad is a popular prior Iowa chief executive who speaks the people’s language. His current highly successful Comeback Tour has been taking him to Iowa towns of all sizes. As he recently told Des Moines political reporter Kathy Obradovich about a small town he was visiting, “I have been here before.” He seems to feel at home with most everyone and makes new friends quickly while re-energizing old ones.
In the former Governor’s current web video he features interviews from recent special events and town visits. There seems to this observer to be much more than nostalgia working for the former state chief executive. At a time when job losses and budgets in Iowa are tough he reminds voters of a time during his terms when economic growth and budget surpluses were the order of the day.
This maybe the proverbial canary in the mine for Democrats looking for a national trend in 2010. Former Governor Branstad, coming from a recent past featuring better times for Iowans may well start a new trend for Republican Governors running in the mid term elections. This race is definitely a major one to watch.
Dr. Alan Phillips
According to a KCCI poll just released, BVP will lose to Culver.