Zaun Releases Results of 3rd District Primary Poll
- Wednesday, February 3, 2010, 12:46
- Iowa, News Center, Top Story
- 1,111 views
- 28 comments
A poll by Davenport-based Victory Enterprises shows State Senator Brad Zaun with a sizable lead over his primary opponents. Victory Enterprises is a paid consultant for Zaun’s congressional campaign.
The poll shows Zaun leading the field of candidates with 26%, while Gibbons had 5%, and Dave Funk had less than 4%. The two other candidates in the race, Patrick Bertroche and Mark Rees, had less than 3 percent. More than 60% of those surveyed remain undecided.
Zaun is the most well known candidate in the race. He has served in elected office for nearly 20 years, and represents a Republican senate district in Polk County. In addition to being the most known, Zaun’s campaign has also been the most active out of the gate. His campaign has robo-called Republican activists, produced and aired a television ad, and now polled the race.
Zaun’s early activity is similar to that of another former Victory Enterprises client, 2008 2nd Congressional District candidate Peter Teahen. In May of 2008, Victory Enterprises polled the 2nd Congressional District. Teahen, the better known candidate from the largest county in the district, had a big lead in the poll.
In VE’s 2008 poll showed Peter Teahen with 36% of the vote, while Miller-Meeks had 14 percent, and Lee Harder netted 7.5 percent. Forty-one percent of likely GOP primary voters were undecided. Despite the Teahen’s early lead, Miller-Meeks won the primary by 218 votes.
The difference between the 2008 2nd District race and this year’s 3rd District primary is that Gibbons has created a huge fundraising advantage over his opponents. Thus far, Gibbons has not run any ads, sent mail, or paid for phone calls.
The money race between Teahen and Miller-Meeks in the primary was tight. While Miller-Meeks outraised her opponent, Teahen had the ability to loan his campaign a considerable amount of money. Gibbons has already raised more money in his first fundraising quarter than Miller-Meeks and Teahen spent combined in the 2nd District primary.
Victory Enterprises poll proves that Zaun is the most known candidate in the primary field, but with 60% of likely primary voters undecided it’s clear that not many people have made up their mind yet.
About the Author
Craig Robinson has written 502 stories on this site.
Craig Robinson serves as the founder and Editor-in-Chief of TheIowaRepublican.com. Prior to founding Iowa's largest conservative news site, Robinson served as the Political Director of the Republican Party of Iowa during the 2008 Iowa Caucuses. In that capacity, Robinson planned and organized the largest political event in 2007, the Iowa Straw Poll, in Ames, Iowa. Robinson also organized the 2008 Republican caucuses in Iowa, and was later dispatched to Nevada to help with the caucuses there. Robinson cut his teeth in Iowa politics during the 2000 caucus campaign of businessman Steve Forbes and has been involved with most major campaigns in the state since then. His extensive political background and rolodex give him a unique perspective from which to monitor the political pulse of Iowa.
28 Comments on “Zaun Releases Results of 3rd District Primary Poll”
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I wonder if anyone is surprises. Zaun does a tv commercial, Zaun does paid calls, Zaun send out a mailer, and now Victory Enterprises (who has employees that fund the campaign) puts out a poll that shows Zaun doing well.
I wonder if Zaun commissioned this poll?
If not I wonder if someone will be inkinding the poll to Zaun because they appear to be connected.
Victory Enterprises polls are about as reliable as a Toyota gas pedal.
This is the same organization that said had Tom Osborne beating Dave Heineman in 2005 for Nebraska Governor (Heineman won),
They had McCain “surging” in Iowa in Sept 2008, (McCain lost Iowa by nearly 10 points)
Victory Enterprises had Tommy Thompson as the “clear choice” of Iowans in July 2007 before the Iowa Straw Poll (Thompson finished in the cellar and dropped out of the race almost immediately after the Straw Poll)…and then in 2002 Victory was proclaming that Steve Sukup was leader for the GOP nomination for Governor.
The memo indicates that the poll was in the field on January 27 and 28. Zaun’s tv ad went up on January 29.
I agree that this race is totally up for grabs with 60 percent of respondents undecided.
I agree with Hawk. VE has a poor reputation when it comes to polling. As for Zaun and VE, of course he commissioned it and paid for it. Duh! They are running his campaign which was reported by some other poster on another thread previously.
What does this mean, even if accurate? It means the race is wide open. 25% when Polk County is so much of the entire district is NOT a solid lead. And this says nothing other than a clear sign to Gibbons to start attacking Zaun NOW. Bad move for Zaun to put this out right now.
Of course we know WHY he did and why he’s taking the risk. He’s hoping that a huge lead news story will help his otherwise anemic fund-raising.
The worst news is for Funk, who is the only other serious candidate in the race, and after having spent months in the grassroots to get 5% is not very good news at all.
What I really want to see and know, which they will NOT tell us, is what sample location breakdown was or the actual questions asked. The devil is in the details they say.
Its campaign basics 101, get the message and candidate out there, test the voters with a poll, poll looks good do advertising to drive the message, raise more money, keep candidate working hard to meet voters, etc.
And Waywardson, pick one side of the arguement. You dont like the polling results for Zaun, but do like them for Funk???
I wonder why desmoinesdm has seen the polling memo. Where is it? It didn’t see it on this site.
This pole is not credible. Remember, the same people who convinced Zaun to sign off on that embarrassing TV spot also conducted this poll. Look, I’m all about supporting small businesses from the midwest, but VE is a joke. Nevertheless, here’s what this poll says: well over half the people (60%) we talked to are undecided (have no clue what’s going on), so it’s going to take cash to win their support. Enter Gibbons.
I don’t put any stock in polls commissioned by campaigns, and with 60% undecided it doesn’t really tell much of anything. Even though he’s well known he still doesn’t pass the 35% threshold.
Up for grabs. I think Zaun will be a contender, but Gibbons and Funk will also be in play as well.
Craig, you say “Thus far, Gibbons has not run any ads, sent mail, or paid for phone calls”. Does that mean the Gibbons fundraiser ad I got in the mail, the hundreds of dollars in postage claimed on the Gibbons financial reports, the robocall I got from Gibbons on caucus day, or the singlet ads I see virtually everytime I go to a political blog are from someone else?
Come on…..it is time to be honest. What we have here is a candidate in Gibbons that sends out a press release that he will be at certain locations on caucus day….AND THEN DIDN’T SHOW UP.
What we are seeing here is exactly what stella says….it is campaign 101. Zaun is showing up Gibbons in every aspect of this campaign, and now seemingly is looking at locking up the undecideds with his TV ad, which seems to be all over network and cable these days. Gibbons can sit on his hands all he wants, because soon there won’t be much left to influence with his stash of out of district special interest money.
Bottom line, the popular Zaun knows how to campaign, and there is a reason he is five for five in elections.
Craig…I think you’re right in the traditional media sense of Gibbons “not running any ads”. However they’ve been spending on pay per click / search related google ads and banner ads galore. Those are relatively inexpensive of course.
I do wonder however what (or who) would compel a candidate with great name recognition and a history within the political establishment to pay for a poll that proves he has the highest name recognition and that most are still really not tuned into this race.
Great idea to run TV commercials now too.
@donlee It does not imply 60% are unaware it means they are undecided. Meaning money is not the only driving factor. When you have a seven candidate primary like this one most people in the undecided category aren’t going to decide until the last minute. It’s going to take a lot more than money. Exit Jim Gibbons.
Rino… I wouldnt be throwing Jim Gibbons out yet. Gibbons has the name ID and has proven he has fundraising ability. Whether you choose to acknoledge it or not, money is the lifeblood of politics….if you have it..you can get your message out to a wider audience than your opponents.
This race is going to come down to Gibbons, Funk and Zaun as it stands right now.
HawkCR1…
I hate to burst your bubble yet again, but for weeks now you have been posting false information.
Here you do it again by stating that “Gibbons has the name ID”.
I’m sorry, but according to the information out in the poll as posted on other sites Gibbons has barely more name ID in the district than Funk, or even Rees. Zaun has light years more name ID in the district according to the data.
HawkCR1…please stop posting false information.
@HawkCR1 Agreed
@mirage Are you for real? You think this poll actually means anything? If you do you should be sent back to your world of gum drops and lollipops. HawkCR1 hasn’t said anything false. I wasn’t going to say anything bad about Zaun, but he’s the kind of guy you go drinking with in college, not the kind of guy you elect to lead your district. I couldn’t care less what his record is. I couldn’t care less what this poll says, it’s almost as bad as that Pate poll that came out recently.
The mere fact that you’ve written off every other candidate since the beginning shows how gerrymandered your brain really is.
Stella, go back and READ my post again. You are mistaken.
Donlee: You are right about the poll and the joke of an ad. But, money ALONE will not do it, especially if he (coach) remains silent on the issues for which people are most motivated.
Rinohunter: I agree with your sarcasm.
Hawk: A+ you are correct and each of them has a different strategy too. Could be a fun game.
BOTTOM LINE: The fat lady isn’t even in the house yet.
Mirage…You think Gibbons doesn’t have name recognition??? That’s one of the most comical things you’ve said.
Someone who has zero name ID doesn’t out fundraise a 6-term Congressional incumbent from the majority party in 6 weeks time.
Candidates with no name ID don’t get interviewed by the Washington Times after Scott Brown’s victory like Gibbons did.
But hey..if you want to go off a Victory Enterprises poll to “back up” what you’re saying…be my guest. Toyota says their cars are safe to drive right now too…doesn’t mean people are gonna believe it.
Ah, I figured it out! I’m a bit slow, but I realize now that “mirage” works for Zaun, or is a close friend. Wait for denial….but they clearly have a dog in this fight…judging by their defensiveness.
Honestly, in this race, I just wanna select someone that isn’t a nut and can beat Boswell.
Hawk….Gibbons has great name recognition….in Perry, Iowa. Where he lives with his family. Let’s do a poll there then instead of relying on a poll in the 3rd district of Iowa, a district where it seems he doesn’t live, nor has worked in for long periods the last 20 years as his website and facebook claim.
Of course, we could of asked Mr. Gibbons about those webpage/facebook fibs at the caucus sites that he had put out a press release he would be at….but sadly, neither he or any of his representatives decided to show up. (no doubt out raising more special interest money from OUT of the 3rd district.) I kinda wanted to thumb though those “glory days” photos and yearbooks I am sure he was going to bring along from 20 years ago.
Hawk, here is some advice for you and the minions….you should all put your singlets away and quit admiring them.
@Everyone I’m going to keep on posting that mirage and his boy don’t stand a chance and see how many times I can get mirage to throw out some pathetic rebuttal because I figure at some point, Zaun will tell him to stop because his funds all went to a badly done TV commercial and stupid VE poll and he can’t afford to pay mirage by the hour to scour the web to post bad comments.
@Waywardson I’m glad some people still understand sarcasm without having to put the *insert sarcasm here* tag. Being able to recognize it is a lost art and it’s def lost on mirage.
I suppose i should take it easy on you, as i know it has been a pretty bad day for you all..
I can’t imagine how you all felt seeing Gibbons poll even behind even Funk in Polk County.
LOL. Mirage….you really should have gone into comedy instead of politics…..Then again, I’d be annoyed too about the fact the Zaun campaign can’t raise money, can’t produce a quality TV ad and has to have its consulting company roll out a manufactured poll in order to give the campaign some amount of “momentum”.
Ya know..I’ll give the Gibbons and Funk campaigns this…at least their strategies don’t involve running to tear down his fellow opponents. I don’t know if anyone else has picked up on this…but the Zaun campaign from the beginning has had this air of arrogance surrounding it. As if Brad Zaun is somehow “entitled” to this nomination.
Mirage, I don’t know why you think everyone who disagrees with one of your Zaun exulting comments is a Gibbons “minion” as you like to call them. Just because some people think that Gibbons has good name recognition doesn’t mean that they are his supporters, or are against Zaun. You don’t need to feel threatened by them…
Maybe if you stopped ripping into Gibbons all the time, and were a little less Zaun centric, people would take your comments more seriously…
You tell’em Truth. I was at Zaun’s very first fundraiser some years back. But if this is where he is now, based on this fool, I will not be doing a flashback repeat.
Hawk, I don’t tear down any of the candidates personally. I am sure Gibbons, Funk, Rees, et all are all GREAT guys and could enjoy a night out downing a few cold ones anytime.
What gets me is if I start talking about a candidate NOT showing up at a caucus he says he will in a press release…….it is MY fault and I am tearing him down. If I start talking about a candidate obviously fibbing on his website….it is MY fault and I am tearing him down. If I start talking about a candidate polling even behind Funk in Polk County…..it is MY fault. The point is I am talking about facts, and you all think its best to attack me, the messinger, yet some of you have few facts to point to OR in many cases, choose to make up things. (Like Hawk’s long record of osting of a fake voting record, his blasting of the financial reporting when he had NO clue of the real dates, or claims of name ID when polls clearly show otherwise.) We are all going to be on the same side of this come July so let’s focus on facts, and the candidate’s real record, statements, and pronouncements, as well as what we learn from the many polls all through the campaign. It is time to take out Boswell…..that is the bottom line.
Mirage…
You’ve proven my point once again on arrogance. Nice job. Becoming a liability towards your candidate’s likability isn’t a good idea. But, by all means… keep it up.
Mirage, I think you misinterpreted my comment. You are making the assumption that if someone makes a comment recognizing Gibbons for fundraising or some other aspect of his campeign, that they are atomatically against Zaun. Thats not the case.
I’m saying this because of the comments you have made in the past. For example, when you posted earlier in this thread saying “I suppose i should take it easy on you, as i know it has been a pretty bad day for you all.. I can’t imagine how you all felt seeing Gibbons poll even behind even Funk in Polk County.” This implies that everyone who previously expressed an opinion that was unfavorable to Zaun, or promoting Gibbons made them automatically his supporters. As Zaun’s poll shows, and I know you think its credible, many people are still undecided and are just disecting the campeign, there’s no need to get defensive.
As for supporting Zaun and expressing your own opinion, I encourage you to do that. However, the most effective way to support a canidate is by pointing out what their strengths are and what makes them the best canidate, not by trying to make his contenders look bad, which is what it looks like you have been trying to do to Gibbons.
I completely agree with you that we are going to be on the same side in July, and that we need to focus on taking out Boswell. So lets focus on the positives of each canidate, and try to get the one most capable of beating Boswell as the nominee.
Truth…your words would be far more meaningful if you balanced them, and didnt preach. You claim the most effective way to support a candidate is by pointing out what their strengths are and what makes them the best candidate, yet you only direct your comments to me…..interesting. Not one word about anyone else here who seems not to take that approach with your favored candidate.
As I have said before, I am all for using facts, and not at all for those that wish to post all the fibs which has gone on for so long here. I’m betting that your call for “focusing on the positives of each candidate” won’t last long in your own camp of posters, who prefer to bash polls, victory enterprises, commercials, fundraisers, and even post fake voting records …..oh..that’s right, you conveniently forgot any of that.