Leaked Republican Primary Poll Shows Branstad with Big Lead
- Tuesday, January 19, 2010, 4:30
- Iowa, News Center, Top Story
- 1,851 views
- 20 comments
A strategic polling memo that was intended to be shared with donors of former Governor Terry Branstad’s campaign was leaked to a few media outlets, including TheIowaRepublican.com yesterday afternoon.
The memo, which was written by Branstad campaign manager Jeff Boeyink, discloses internal polling data that was collected from January 10th through January 12th. The polling data shows Branstad garnering 63% of the primary vote, while his closest primary challenger, Bob Vander Plaats received support of 18% of respondents. The poll shows Chris Rants with 4% of the vote and Rod Roberts with 2%.
The poll results are surprising because many people have assumed that Bob Vander Plaats would be supported by a greater percentage of primary voters. In TheIowaRepublican.com poll in June, Branstad was supported by 35%, while Vander Plaats finished a close second with 31%.
The dynamics of the Republican gubernatorial primary have changed substantially since the TIR poll was taken. The biggest changes are that Branstad is now an actual announced candidate and the field of candidates has shrunk from seven candidates down to four.
The memo states that the poll was conducted by Hill Research. That is the same firm that conducted the poll for the Iowa First Foundation. Hill is a respectable pollster who has long-time connections to Branstad and the state of Iowa. In addition to the strong numbers in support of Branstad, the other number that jumps out is the survey size.
A sample size of 750 is much larger than most statewide polls. Typically statewide samples are 500 to 600 people. Most national polls have a survey size of 1000. The 750 likely primary voters provides very reliable sample.
While Vander Plaats numbers in this poll may be lower than they actually are, the most troubling aspect for his campaign is that Rants and Roberts combine to garner less than 10% of the vote. For Vander Plaats to win the June primary, he will need Chris Rants and/or Rod Roberts to garner a significant percentage of the vote. There is no doubt in my mind that Vander Plaats can easily pull 30 to 35% of the vote in the primary, but that’s not going to be enough if Rants and Roberts only combine to garner 25 to 30% of the vote.
Even if Vander Plaats garners 35%, and Rants and Roberts split another 25%, Branstad would lilkey win with 40% of the vote. While Vander Plaats might not have any problem getting to 35%, finding another five to ten percent might be very difficult, especially given the perception that he is a one issue candidate.
Below is the leaked memo that was written by Branstad’s campaign manager Jeff Boeyink.
As you are aware, we have been in the field with a poll of primary voting Republicans to test the current four-way race in the gubernatorial primary.
Details:
Hill Research Consultants
Survey dates: 1/10 through 1/12
N=750 Iowa Republicans who are very likely to vote in the June 8 primaryHere are the top-line results:
Four Way Primary Test
Terry Branstad 63%
Strongly 42%Bob Vander Plaats 18%
Strongly 10%Christopher Rants 04%
Strongly 02%Rod Roberts 02%
Strongly 00%I will have additional top lines and cross tabs to share with you later in the week. However, as we are kicking off the official start of the campaign this week I wanted to share this encouraging news.
Combine these results with the unprecedented fund raising accomplished in 2009 and our campaign has certainly started off in the right direction and with great momentum.
I am looking forward to seeing many of you at the kick-off event tomorrow and later in the week as we hold events in your respective areas.
Please give me a call if you have any questions.
About the Author
Craig Robinson has written 700 stories on this site.
Craig Robinson serves as the founder and Editor-in-Chief of TheIowaRepublican.com. Prior to founding Iowa's largest conservative news site, Robinson served as the Political Director of the Republican Party of Iowa during the 2008 Iowa Caucuses. In that capacity, Robinson planned and organized the largest political event in 2007, the Iowa Straw Poll, in Ames, Iowa. Robinson also organized the 2008 Republican caucuses in Iowa, and was later dispatched to Nevada to help with the caucuses there. Robinson cut his teeth in Iowa politics during the 2000 caucus campaign of businessman Steve Forbes and has been involved with most major campaigns in the state since then. His extensive political background and rolodex give him a unique perspective from which to monitor the political pulse of Iowa.
20 Comments on “Leaked Republican Primary Poll Shows Branstad with Big Lead”
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It’s a no-brainer that this is currently Branstad’s race to lose. However, he needs to step up to the plate and convince voters why he wants the job.
BVP getting 18% is a pretty poor showng considering all the hoopla he has tried to make from Chuck, Huck, deace et al and now getting IFPC to shill for him.
Finally, finally, the eclipse of the extremists in our midst is upon us. 18% for BVP. What joyous news!!! For the noisy extremists who have been taking up space on this site, my advice to you, deal with it. We are a community, a state and a country of MODERATES.
Maybe not moderates Mod, but certainly not the kook fringe!
Another good article. However, whoever suggests Branstad needs to step up to the plate either doesn’t know or doesn’t care to know that today Branstad will start announcing and touring the state. Unlike some other candidates, he didn’t need to step up to the plate in 2000. Craig, I am hoping we will have some good analysis of fundraising in the next few days as the reports are filed with ICFEDB.
Roberts released his fundraising numbers for 2009…shows he only raised $100,000 for ALL of 2009….Rants has stated previously that his fundraising numbers weren’t as good as he would have liked….
What will be interesting to see today is BVP’s fundraising numbers. BVP hasn’t been known for his fundraising prowess. If he doesn’t post a respectable number today..his campaign is in real trouble.
Hawk–what’s respectable? I say anything less than $500k coupled with his pathetic showing at 18% means he’s toast or forms a third party.
It looks like this thing may be coming to it’s conclusion. This along with the KCCI poll showing Branstad winning against Culver by 69% to Culver’s 20% shows this is Branstad’s to win.
It looks like Iowans are longing for the “good ole days”.
The same ones who are now complaining about Branstad not being conservative enough, didn’t complain about that while he was in office. He was considered a social and a fiscal conservative. They’re using desperate measures to try to get their fair-haired boy elected.
Mod: If VP cannot win a Republican primary, he would only be embarrassing himself more by running as a third party. His showing would be miserable. He’s going to have to go find a real job.
Oh he’s got to have at least 500K cash on hand. What I’m really curious to see is BVP’s burn rate.
For example his little fundraiser the Chuck Norris ranch in Texas. From what has been previously reported….the BVP campaign supposedly was flying 40 Iowans down to Texas from Iowa for this event and back. That’s not cheap.
Plus, the fact that many of the large dollar Iowa GOP donors were holding back until Branstad decided to get into the race tells me that BVP isn’t going to have a big number of large $$ donors.
I think what you will see…is a number of out of state contributions to the BVP campaign thanks to his connections with Mike Huckabee.
Hawk: Huck’s no fool. If he truly wants to be a national figure he make look at BVP as a ball and chain given BVP’s embarrassing showing in the poll.
I think Brandstad’s camp is trying to end the race right now. The release of the fundraising numbers, along with this poll really has to hit BVP hard. It makes it harder and harder for BVP to raise money and seems to relegate him to being the extreme right candidate. His campaign has never expanded beyond his natural supporters.
I am surprised Roberts has gained any traction. He seems like a good guy and a good candidate. Rants just never got going and looks like the terrier barking at the bigger dogs from behind the fence.
Anon, I DO know that Branstad is making it “official”. However, he can’t take this current lead for granted and he has got to clearly show WHY he not only wants the job again, but why he is the best choice. Good money says it’s his to lose, but a lot can happen between now and election day.
But Steve Deace is SURE that there’s a REVOLUTION going on! I don’t understand. The grass roots are FIRED UP and the AREN’T GOING TO TAKE IT ANYMORE!
How can this all be? What about the Revolution?
The joke that is the Vander Plaats campaign is finally unmasked. It reminds me of what happens in some high schools around the time of picking the homecoming king/queen. There occasionally pops up some group of misfits and weirdos – unhappy with the popular kids winning all the time – that want to hold their own homecoming election and, inevitably, some spikey haired goth with his nails painted black wins. The Christian right in Iowa is such a group of misfits and freaks.
They live in their conspiratorial little sub-culture of irrelevance and talk about the grandiosity of their plan to “save marriage” and remake Iowa in their own image (or as they claim, “God’s image”). The courtyard is made of of the full spectrum of self-deluded creeps: Deace, Scheffler, Lehman, Hurley, and of course, the grandest freak of them all, Bob Vander Plaats.
On the one hand, I almost wish Vander Plaats were doing better, keeping it closer, and posing a larger threat to the overall order. Because if this were the case, all of the very good opposition research on him might come into play and his pants would be pulled down in front of the playmates in his odd little playground. Unfortunately, this likely won’t happen, so his starry-eyed swooners will never know the truth of his shady tenure at Opportunity Iowa and the myriad questions surrounding the financial health of that organization under his “leadership”, or how he finances his lifestyle as a professional candidate for Governor.
Be gone with you, Bob. You’re a menace. And take your strange little menagerie with you.
BVP = Moderates aka Statist Liberals, rejoicing and claiming the marriage issue is over. Thanks Bob!
Truth of course is, it’s the messenger not the message. One trick, no depth Bob and now by very traditional political marriage IFPC… are totally INEPT at doing anything about the extreme leftist and their judicial usurpations. The marriage issue WILL win in the other races, in the delegates, in the platform, and isn’t going away. But lacking an organized POLITICAL effort from a competent candidate Or Organization, we’re stuck for now with this huge setback.
And this isn’t anywhere NEAR the first setback. The first of course is Roe V Wade and the 45 years of greedy “life” groups raising millions and not doing ANYTHING about it. Even the left admits it was a bad ruling, though they still keep the result in favor.
It took several other lessor setbacks to just get us to the rouge court who made up this bogus ‘right’. And then the inept and greedy and selfish, three different factions of the far SOCIALIST Religious Right are blowing it with Bob.
It’s almost enough to make a good conservative just give up! With leadership like this, who even needs the left to be the bogyman anymore.
And the cat is out of the bag– According to the DSM Register…BVP raised only 600,000 for ALL of 2009…but..here’s the kicker…he starts 2010 with ONLY 200,000 cash on hand to begin the year…
That’s a burn rate of nearly 60%..in an OFF year, when BVP has been running the entire year. That’s NOT good whatsoever for his campaign.
To put this in some perspective…Rod Roberts is starting out the year with just over 100,000 cash on hand to start the year with.
And now on the other post it is starting to look like Roberts has nearly as much money on hand as BVP. Time to take a second good look at RR.
This is sad to hear. ABB – Anybody But Branstad.
Vander Plaats campaign admits: “We cannot compete financially”
http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-22564-Des-Moines-Conservative-Examiner~y2010m1d19-Vander-Plaats-campaign-We-cant-compete-financially