Paul Pate tops Mauro in Head-to-Head in Secretary of State Poll
- Monday, January 11, 2010, 3:30
- Iowa, News Center, Top Story
- 1,452 views
- 18 comments
For months, there has been speculation that former Cedar Rapids Mayor Paul Pate is considering a run for Secretary of State. Pate is uniquely qualified for the office given that he served the state in that capacity from 1995 to 1999. A Pate/Mauro matchup would give Iowa Republicans good odds of winning the office since Secretary of State Mauro has done little to become known across the state during his first term.
Propelling Pate’s likely run is a poll conducted late last year by Henderson & Associates which shows Pate’s strength in a head-to-head matchup with Mauro. When poll respondents were asked who they would vote for in the Secretary of State race if the election was between the two, 34.6% supported Pate, while 31.1% opted to re-elect Secretary of State Mauro.
Another question asked of respondents whether Mauro deserves to be re-elected. Twenty-nine percent of respondents said that a new person should be given a chance to lead that office, while only 17.5 percent said that Mauro should be re-elected.
In response to the polling results, Pate said, “I’m pleased and humbled with the findings in this poll. As I weigh my options and contemplate a run for the office of Iowa Secretary of State, it’s the views of family, friends and Iowans across the state that will help me make the right decision.”
The polling results explain why Pate is seriously exploring a run for state-wide office again. When asked by TheIowaRepublican.com last month when he plans to officially enter the race, Pate said, “It’s a process, and it is important not to skip certain phases of the process when starting to put together a campaign.” Pate admitted that he has been doing his homework and reaching out to past supporters of his previous political endeavors across the state. “It’s important to get a sense of the issues and talk to people who can offer suggestions and insight to the problems facing our state,” Pate added.
In addition to favorable poll matchup between himself and Mauro, Pate brings a number of advantages with him to a state-wide campaign. Not only has he held statewide office before, he has also served two terms as the mayor of Iowa’s second largest city, Cedar Rapids, and served two terms in the State Senate. Pate’s name ID in the Cedar Rapids media market makes him a formidable state-wide candidate, and so does his fundraising ability.
One of the most difficult tasks that candidates for statewide constitutional offices have is raising money. Political donors in the state are hounded by congressional and gubernatorial candidates, which means that most of the financial resources will be given to candidates for those races. Pate already has a statewide donor file, and his polling data will also help make the case that a contribution to his campaign is a smart investment for Republican donors.
Having Pate on the ballot next fall could also help Iowa Republicans be more competitive in eastern Iowa. The political environment already looks good for Republicans next fall, and having Senator Grassley on the top of the ticket in a non-presidential year should also help. Yet, Republicans have struggled in eastern Iowa recently. Having a well-known former mayor on the ballot would obviously benefit all of the Republican statewide candidates.
Before Pate can be on the general election ballot next fall, he will first have to win a primary against Council Bluffs City Councilman Matt Schultz and former State Representative George Eichhorn. The potential three-way primary for Secretary of State is just another indication of the excitement that Republicans are currently experiencing. In previous years, Republicans sometimes found it difficult to recruit one candidate for a particular race, let alone three.
And if the election for Secretary of State were held today and you had to choose one or the other, would you cast a vote for Michael Mauro the Democrat or Paul Pate the Republican?
Definitely Mauro………………………………………………………..86 14.3%
Probably Mauro………………………………………………………..101 16.8%
TOTAL MAURO…………………………………………………………187 31.1%Definitely Pate…………………………………………………………..89 14.8%
Probably Pate…………………………………………………………..119 19.8%
TOTAL PATE…………………………………………………………….208 34.6%Undecided……………………………………………………………….198 33.0%
Refused………………………………………………………………………7 1.2%
Michael Mauro is a democrat who works closely with Governor Culver as Secretary of State. Do you think Mauro has done a good enough job to deserve re-election or do you think it’s time to give a new person a chance?
Re-elect……………………………………………………………………105 17.5%
New Person………………………………………………………………..174 29.0%
Unsure……………………………………………………………………..313 52.2%
Refused………………………………………………………………………8 1.3%
Have you heard of Paul Pate?
Heard of, Favorable………………………………………………………..50 8.3%
Heard of, Unfavorable……………………………………………………..23 3.8%
Heard of, no opinion………………………………………………………119 19.8%
Never heard of …………………………………………………………407 67.8%
Refused………………………………………………………………………1 0.2%Have you heard of Michael Mauro?
Heard of, Favorable…………………………………………………………34 5.7%
Heard of, Unfavorable………………………………………………………23 3.8%
Heard of, no opinion………………………………………………………..85 14.2%
Never heard of …………………………………………………………458 76.3%
Refused………………………………………………………………………0 0
About the Author
Craig Robinson has written 700 stories on this site.
Craig Robinson serves as the founder and Editor-in-Chief of TheIowaRepublican.com. Prior to founding Iowa's largest conservative news site, Robinson served as the Political Director of the Republican Party of Iowa during the 2008 Iowa Caucuses. In that capacity, Robinson planned and organized the largest political event in 2007, the Iowa Straw Poll, in Ames, Iowa. Robinson also organized the 2008 Republican caucuses in Iowa, and was later dispatched to Nevada to help with the caucuses there. Robinson cut his teeth in Iowa politics during the 2000 caucus campaign of businessman Steve Forbes and has been involved with most major campaigns in the state since then. His extensive political background and rolodex give him a unique perspective from which to monitor the political pulse of Iowa.
18 Comments on “Paul Pate tops Mauro in Head-to-Head in Secretary of State Poll”
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Good grief!! Seventy six percent of those polled had never heard of Mauro. This proves the average voter is ignorant and the rest of us overanalyze for whom to vote. That’s a mighty spiffy photo of Pate and that may be enough for him to win the election.
Pate has probably one of the strongest track records of leadership of any GOP leader in Iowa today….having previously served as a County GOP leader, State Senator, Mayor of Cedar Rapids as well as Secretary of State.
Another huge selling point for Pate: He has NEVER lost a general election to a Democrat.
2010 here in Iowa is shaping up to potentially have one of the strongest GOP lineups in years on the ballot….having Pate on the ballot for Secretary of State would only make that lineup stronger.
Of the candidates running for the Sec. of State seat, Pate is the most qualified candidate hands down…
Paul Pate is a good man; I like him and hope he does run.
This poll is pathetic. This poll shows that Pate’s and Mauro’s name ID is limited. It goes to show how uninformed most people are.
Although Pate is the most qualified, this primary could get nasty. Since Eichhorn has proven he can’t campaign over and over again, I don’t really see him as a possibility. But he will steal some votes from the other two, which is annoying for them. If Schultz is who people close to him say he is, then he won’t be backing down. Pate and him are going to have a tough fight in the primary. Don’t write Schultz off. He’s young and has a lot of energy. But as of right now, Pate will win and is the most qualified (also has dirt), but he is going to have to spend more money than one would like to win this primary before he takes on Mauro in the general election. That isn’t a good thing. This will be an interesting primary to watch.
A Branstad/Pate ticket is a tough one to beat. With Branstad, Pate, Northey, and Vaudt, our chances look really good! IMO, the Republican candidate defeats the Democrat incumbent for Governor and SOS.
The way this article is written, it appears the writer is a paid staffer for Pate, who backed abortion supporting, tax raising Rudy Guiliani for the Presidency.
The polling company was from Pate’s hometown and likely paid by Pate. MOST IMPORTANTLY, if the poll is even close to accurate the article says: “Twenty-nine percent of respondents said that a new person should be given a chance to lead that office, while only 17.5 percent said that Mauro should be re-elected. ” First Pate is not new, he is an old comodity – as old as the movie Back to Future which I am sure would come up more than once. But with these poll numbers it is clear that if conservative GEORGE EICHHORN was polled with these numbers he would be beating Pate too!
IAConservative, you sound like a paid staffer yourself, but since George has no money for staff I think that sorta narrows your anonymous identity down a bit. Wouldn’t you say? I voted for McCain/Palin over Obama even though I disagreed with him on immigration and littany of other issues. Are you saying Pate shouldn’t be considered because he supported America’s Mayor when he also happens to be a mayor himself? I didn’t support Rudy, but rock solid conservatives like Jim Nussle, Steve Forbes, Pate and others who I respect did. I supported Mitt Romney like a lot of people in Iowa, but that doesn’t mean supporters of McCain, F. Thompson, T. Thompson, Brownback etc. are somehow not worth voting for in their own right. How old is Eichhorn anyway? Pate’s bio says 51 which is a dozen years Branstad’s junior, and he looks like he could bench press Eichhorn and Sweaty Chetty combined. Not to mention he has never lost to a Democrat. Who knows this Schultz kid? Who are his peeps? If they read this blog they should be encouraging him to run for Attorney General and then we won’t have to waste his potential on an unwinnable primary against Pate. Lastly, while I have your undivided attention, if Eichhorn is so conservative why did he get his ass kicked by the virtual unknown Chris Reed when he had every single legislative endorsement? He lost his house seat, lost a race for state senate, and then lost a primary for U.S. Senate to a conservative with no name ID or $. Sorry, he may be a nice guy, but I’m not wasting my vote on a guy who has gone to great lengths to prove that he can’t win.
Question 2 is very specifically worded and suggests something very interesting. Culver’s name is poison right now. I’d bet if you changed that question to leave out Culver’s name, the “re-elect” numbers would go up 10 points.
Its a fair question to ask, Sharp. As a member of the Executive Council with Culver, Mauro does work closely with the Governor.
Plus, it was Culver who encouraged Mauro to run for the office he formerly held before becoming Governor…so the ties between the two are there.
Sharp: Good point about Culver’s name being pure poison, but I think HawkCR is spot on with regard to the two of them being joined at the hip on the executive council. Who did Mauro even beat to become Secretary of State? Looks like the guy is ripe to be taken out just like Culver is.
It’s like saying “John Doe is a gardener who works closely with manure…” or “Joe Sixpack is a butcher who works closely with dead animals…” It’s true, but it is really going to color your opinion,
And don’t forget, that’s a sword that cuts both ways. I think you could also say that Vaudt and Northey, as cabinet officials “work closely with Governor Culver”.
Why is this even an argument? The question that was asked will clearly cause bias. Having Culver and Mauro in the same sentence will definitely hurt Mauro in the results. Because of that, the results of that question should be ignored. What kind of retard would ask a question like that? If you think that question is valid, THEN YOU’RE an idiot. Although I believe Pate would poll higher than Mauro, this question goes to show that this poll is a joke. Henderson & Associates are full of retards. Also, where is the margin of error and confidence level.
Someone should do this poll the right way. Henderson is a joke. Then we will have real evidence that Pate is going to kick Mauro’s butt.
Mr. Robinson, I assume there was a margin of error or sample size on the poll. Can you let us know what they were or find out?
As for “TheThinker”, my goodness-gracious. Time to break out the Midol. Maybe we should take Culver off the ticket completely. I bet that would add 10 points to Mauro and every other Democrat as well! LMAO! Come back when you have something substantive to say and not just spew vitrol towards someone you are either jeaous of or who stole your girlfriend in grade school. I’m leaning towards Pate because he’s the most qualified and can/will win. This win will benefit every Iowan who would like to see that the elections are fair and square. That is the only way we can get quality candidates from any party to run for elective office. Its not just good for the GOP, its good for Iowa as a whole.
Cletus Snow,
Obviously you didn’t read my post. I support Pate too. I think he will beat Mauro. I am mad at Henderson & Associates for making poll look stupid. Mauro and Kiernan’s comments were right in the fact that it was poorly done.
All I said was I want this poll redone by someone who actually knows how to do one. The questions shouldn’t be bias, like that one was (obviously Snow, you need to go back to college and take a stats class since you think that is an acceptable practice). Also, the margin of error and confidence level wasn’t reported. I would like to assume that the confidence level was 95% like they typically are for political polls, but who knows. It’s important to eliminate bias. I want to know who the sample was, what the confidence level and margin for error was, and I want questions that are not bias. This poll lacks that.
Snow, I believe my comment was more substantive than yours. I actually give specific reasons why this poll is flawed. We need a new poll that really proves Pate is going to win.
Tainted polls do tend to gin up the base and mislead the media, and in politics that does seem to be a fairly common practice; or at least so I perceive.
I had a copy of the press release forwarded to me by another blog site.
Says the margin of error was 3.99%.
Pate Tops Mauro in Head-to-Head Poll
Iowans Want Change in Secretary of State Office
Cedar Rapids, Iowa – A poll conducted by Henderson & Associates of Cedar Rapids shows former Iowa Secretary of State Paul D. Pate leading the incumbent Democrat Michael Mauro in a potential head to head match-up 34.6% to 31.1%.
Question: “And if the election for Secretary of State were held today and you had to choose one or the other, would you cast a vote for Michael Mauro the Democrat or Paul Pate the Republican?”
The survey also asked voters their views on current Iowa Secretary of State Michael Mauro’s job performance and whether they would vote to re-elect him.
Question: “Michael Mauro is a democrat who works closely with Governor Culver as Secretary of State. Do you think Mauro has done a good enough job to deserve re-election or do you think it’s time to give a new person a chance?”
The results found 17.5% said “Re-Elect”, 29.0% said “New Person” and 52.2% responded “Unsure”.
Pate, who has been encouraged by many republican activists to seek the office he formerly held, said, “I’m pleased and humbled with the findings in this poll. As I weigh my options and contemplate a run for the office of Iowa Secretary of State, it’s the views of family, friends and Iowans across the state that will help me make the right decision.”
Michael Mauro is expected to seek re-election after having been elected in 2006. Paul Pate served as Iowa Secretary of State and Commission of Elections from 1995 – 1999 and in the Iowa Senate representing parts of Cedar Rapids and Marion from 1989-1995. More recently, Pate unseated a three term incumbent to become Mayor of Cedar Rapids and served two terms from 2002 – 2006.
Field Date: October 28-29, 2009
Surveys: 600
Margin of Error: +/- 3.99%
The poll was conducted by Henderson & Associates and paid for by the Citizens for Pate Committee.
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Thanks Cletus for the additional information. I appreciate it. I still have issue with that question, but at least we have the other information available. Thanks again.
Steve Deace and IFPC need to know if Pate wants to return us to biblical principles before they’ll decide on who to support here.