Is Romney Planning to Bypass Iowa?
- Tuesday, October 20, 2009, 4:15
- News Center, Presidential, Top Story
- 2,481 views
- 23 comments
A good friend of mine was once asked by the media, “Why does the presidential nominating process start in Iowa?” Sure, there is a historical way answer to the question, but my friend smiled and answered the reporter’s question with one of his own.
“Why is the Rose Bowl played in Pasadena?”
The point that he was making was a simple one, the reason Iowa kicks off the nomination process is because it’s something we have been doing for a long time now, its ingrained into the political process, and it has to start somewhere, so why not Iowa?
It never takes long for the presidential activity to return to Iowa after an election. In fact, potential presidential candidates were making their way to Iowa long before President Obama was even inaugurated. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal was in Iowa less than three weeks after Obama defeated McCain in the general election. While it usually doesn’t start that early in Iowa, a steady stream of potential presidential candidates have already made their way to the First in the Nation caucus state. Next month, both Tim Pawlenty and Ron Paul have trips to Iowa on their calendars.
While a number of GOP presidential hopefuls and attention seekers have made their way to Iowa, there is one well-known candidate who seems to not want anything to do with Iowa – Mitt Romney. Romney had his eyes fixated on Iowa almost four years before he would announce his candidacy in 2007. This time around, he is ignoring the Hawkeye state. Romney has traveled all around the country raising money for his Free and Strong Leadership PAC and headlining Republican fundraisers, but he hasn’t stepped foot in Iowa.
Romney hasn’t totally forgotten about Iowa. When his presidential campaign ended in early February of 2008, he had over $400,000 in his Iowa state PAC. Since last fall, Romney has slowly been draining the funds from his Iowa PAC. Before the 2008 elections, Romney made a $30,000 contribution to the Republican Party of Iowa, a $10,000 contribution to State Senate candidate Kim Reynolds, and a handful of other contributions to legislative candidates. Those, however, are the last expenditures his PAC has made in Iowa.
In June of this year, Romney’s state PAC’s balance was down to $203,380.91. Instead of making contributions to county party organizations and legislative candidates, Romney is using to his Iowa PAC to help subsidize the salaries of aides, like his former campaign manager, Beth Myers, and Eric Fehrnstrom, his former communications director. None of these expenditures have anything to do with supporting Iowa candidates or building an organization for his leadership PAC.
Romney’s decision to drain funds from his Iowa PAC sends a signal that he could very well bypass the Iowa caucuses in 2012 if he makes another run for the Republican nomination for president. If Romney was planning on another Iowa caucus campaign, keeping funds in his state PAC would have allowed him to set up an early Iowa organization like he did in 2006.
Adding to the speculation that Romney might opt to skip the Iowa caucuses in 2012 are recent comments from one of his former advisors, David Kochel, an Iowa native.
Last week, Kochel told the Des Moines Register, “Given the changing nature of the caucus electorate and the ongoing increase in the proportion of Christian conservatives in that electorate, some candidates will be looking to downplay Iowa.”
“Iowa may become a little more optional than it’s been in the past,” he added.
Kochel also pointed out that a strategy that bypasses Iowa now “clearly works.” While it is true that both Ronald Reagan and John McCain have bypassed the caucuses and won the nomination, it’s a strategy with a considerable amount of risk.
When you look at who the potential 2012 presidential candidates will be, they all seem like natural fits for Iowa. Newt Gingrich is a constant presence in Iowa. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is on his way to Iowa next month and just hired two Iowa natives to manage his leadership PAC. Mike Huckabee surely wouldn’t turn his back on Iowa. Sarah Palin would have a base of support. Additionally, any lesser-known candidate will embrace the Iowa caucuses because the caucuses don’t require millions of dollars just to participate.
If Romney skips the Iowa caucuses, he’s going to be in a position in which he absolutely has to win the New Hampshire primary. The media is going to have very high expectations for him to win the state that he now calls that state home. It also means that he is going to have to sit back and see who emerges in Iowa. Romney has invested a lot into Iowa, and it is shocking that he would walk away from everything that he built here. Romney received 25% of the vote, almost more than Fred Thompson and John McCain received combined.
After winning the Ames Straw Poll, Romney found it difficult to close the deal with caucus goers. The lesson that he should have learned from that experience is that, no matter who is participating in the caucuses, it’s going to be a competitive race and the media will cover it.
In 2012, it looks like there will be an ample list of Republican presidential hopefuls willing to once again make their case to Iowa Republicans. If the race is between Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin, the media will have a field day covering it.
I’m confident that Iowa will once again kickoff the nomination process. The field of Republican candidates will be of a greater caliber than their 2008 counterparts. And once again media outlets from all over the globe will descend to Iowa to cover the race – whether or not Mitt Romney decides to participate.
About the Author
Craig Robinson has written 454 stories on this site.
Craig Robinson serves as the founder and Editor-in-Chief of TheIowaRepublican.com. Prior to founding Iowa's largest conservative news site, Robinson served as the Political Director of the Republican Party of Iowa during the 2008 Iowa Caucuses. In that capacity, Robinson planned and organized the largest political event in 2007, the Iowa Straw Poll, in Ames, Iowa. Robinson also organized the 2008 Republican caucuses in Iowa, and was later dispatched to Nevada to help with the caucuses there. Robinson cut his teeth in Iowa politics during the 2000 caucus campaign of businessman Steve Forbes and has been involved with most major campaigns in the state since then. His extensive political background and rolodex give him a unique perspective from which to monitor the political pulse of Iowa.
23 Comments on “Is Romney Planning to Bypass Iowa?”
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I think for the good of the GOP we need to relinquish our first in the nation status and move it to a more conservative state. Iowa & New Hampshire have become way to moderate/left leaning.
Lobo: Your dog needs distemper shots. Are you out of your mind? The fact that the GOP has been taken over like nuts like you and offers up jokes like Huckabee and Robertson will mean the demise of the GOP Iowa caucuses.
Lobo: Do you call Huck a conservative? I don’t but I think a whole lot of Republican caucus goers in Iowa thought he was a conservative so what are you talking about?
Funny, Lobo. Doug Gross and Rich Schwarm warned the same thing only for reasons that Iowa is full of socons.
DVFO, Why don’t you think Huckabee is a conservative? Because he wasn’t great on the economy? Because he wasn’t the ‘complete package’? What’s the difference between him and what you’re offering up now?
If Romney bypasses Iowa..it will be the DUMBEST move he’s made as a political candidate.
Every candidate that has bypassed Iowa has failed to get the Republican nomination. Even McCain learned his lesson from 2000 and had an operation in Iowa in 2008.
Romney’s failed in Iowa for one MAJOR reason…He failed to develop a solid, grassroots support base. Romney thought he could simply drop 10-20 million in Iowa in TV, radio ads, and mailings..and Republicans would simply flock to his side.
Romney was running radio and TV ads in Iowa going ALL the way back to early 2007…had the largest campaign staff….and arguably the biggest spread at the Ames Straw Poll in 2007.
So how did he get beat? Simply… Mike Huckabee out hustled him, out worked him and built an extensive grassroots support base that turned out for him on Caucus night. He also had people rallied around a major issue that Iowans supported in the FairTax and had far more solid conservative credentials than Romney did.
Peggy, you’re exactly correct. Huck was not the complete package and he was not great on the economy or illegal immigration. He even thinks it’s ok for the federal govt. to control the salaries of CEOs, etc.
He’s a big government populist.
Who am I offering up? I have no candidate for governor. Actually, I like them all and will be glad to trade any one of them for Culver.
I pledge my vote to whichever Republican obtains the party’s nomination.
“Huck was not the complete package and he was not great on the economy or illegal immigration. He even thinks it’s ok for the federal govt. to control the salaries of CEOs, etc.
He’s a big government populist.”
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Exactly right. And remember, Steve Deace tell us that we shouldn’t be voting for a candidate who isn’t the complete package. So his support of Huck seems ‘odd’.
you guys made my point, Huck is not a conservative, he may be a social conservative and appeal to the churchies, but his record in running his state was no better then Clinton’s.
you need to find a candidate who appeals to the churchies but has not compromised on his fiscal credentials as well as appeal to the neo-cons and their “security” agenda. its just not going to happen as long as the candidate has to come through iowa.
DVFO, you said about Huckabee, “He even thinks it’s ok for the federal govt. to control the salaries of CEOs, etc.” I want an exact link for that and if you can’t provide one (which I know you won’t be able to) you will then have proven to me once and for all that your head is so far up your ass that you have zero ability to determine fact from fiction and you are only able to spew talking points because you are too lazy to do your own research or too drunk on the kool-aid to even care to do so.
It surprises me that you even care, given the fact that most of you hate Romney because he is everything most of us aren’t: ridiculously successful.
Granted, Romney is not the most conservative candidate in the world. We all know that. But neither is Huckabee. Most Huckabee supporters are only one or two issue voters anyway. Huckabee will only exacerbate our current economic woes. He has no understanding of good economic policy. At least I could trust Romney on these issues. Frankly, there isn’t another candidate out there that could perform as well as Romney would in regards to the economy.
That being said, I am undecided who I would support. I am not a staunch Romney supporter. However, it is obvious he is the best fiscally. Romney’s main problem is the majority’s misunderstanding towards his religion, which when understood, isn’t a weird as most people think.
I doubt he will completely disregard Iowa. But he definitely shouldn’t put the same amount of resources into it as he did last time.
to be honest, how much of a focus did McCain have in iowa… it wasn’t much. heck most people had written him off.
his boost came after the NH primary. i really think a candidate can ignore Iowa and not bow down to the children of the corn and still make waves.
“not bow down to the children of the corn”
I’m laughing here.
Peggy, he was referring to folks like YOU!!!
I don’t care….it’s funny!
The Rose Bowl is in Pasadena because that is where the stadium is located.
Thinker:
Romney gets it right on fiscal issues, huh?
That’s why he raised taxes (yes, fees are taxes) by hundreds of millions of dollars in Mass.?
That’s why he instituted socialized medicine in Mass. which is bankrupting the state?
If that’s fiscally conservative, we’re all in trouble.
Scott M:
You are right about those. I don’t really like the fees either. I agree with you. When he first walked into office he was confronted with a massive deficit. It may have been the only way he knew how to balance the budget. He didn’t only do that; he fired a ton of bureaucrats as well (one good thing). By the way, I’m not defending Romney on this one.
Now, regarding his health care plan. While yes, he should get bashed for that, I don’t think he actually thought it would turn out the way that it has. He definitely did not intend for it to have the results that it has had. Failed experiment. I am sure if he could go back and do it over again, he would. Also, it’s not like he did that when he first entered office. He fixed the financial woes of the state first, and then attempted to solve that problem. I doubt he would attempt to do that at the federal level, given the current situation we are in now. That being said, he should still be held accountable for the failure.
I still trust him more than Huckabee in regards to economic issues.
Iowa Rock: You’re the one needing to do some research. The first I knew about Huckabee being willing to control the pay of CEOs came from the Deace show. I was shocked when I heard it but have since googled it to learn it is true.
http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2007/12/huckabee_on_ceo_pay.php
Watching some of Huckabee on YouTube is extremely interesting. He sounds like a Democrat.
Please … Romney …. skip the Iowa Caucuses and the entire election. And take Huckabee with you, and really anyone else from 2008 that ran. Time for someone with fiscal conservative governing experience and stick-to-itiveness to get us out of this fiscal nightmare. We aren’t going to be able to pay for anything — defense, Social Security, health care, roads, anything! — unless things are changed soon. Otherwise I think we better all take the last few dollars we have (whatever they may be worth) and invset them in the Chinese version of Rosetta Stone.
DVFO, How totally predictable that you would pull something from CFG who was famous for twisting everything about Huckabee in order to get a fat paycheck from Mitt Romney. Here is what Huckabee says in your link, “then they’re going to end up forcing government to take action, which is the worst thing that could happen and it only exacerbates a problem rather than actually solves it.” Yep, you proved it. That sounds like to me that Huckabee is on board with the government regulating CEO pay. Like I said, you are just spewing talking points. Your head is still up your ass.
I remember a report last week that said Romney promised not to skip Iowa. I don’t know how we would know that, given that he has said he won’t decide whether to run until sometime after Election 2010.
I do not think Romney is counting on winning Iowa. Maybe, maybe not. Coming in #2 would be respectable, given that he is very likely to win New Hampshire days later. I think the most recent numbers I saw have him at over 50% of the vote with several competitors.
Romney doesn’t need to win all of the Right. He just needs to speak to Independents better than his competitors, and guess what? He used to be one.
I even know a lot of Democrats who will vote for him, given his strong knowledge of economic issues. Can we say this for Palin, Huckabee?
I like Palin, but being able to see 7-Eleven from her doorstep does not make her an expert on the economy.
God bless Mitt = God bless America.
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The real question is if this time Romney competes will he use David Kochel to pass out laundered money to christian causes to try and influence the caucuses? Morris Hurd, Steve Scheffler, David Kochel and Gentry Collins all have something in common. And it isn’t that they all believe in God. You figure it out.
JM sez:”I even know a lot of Democrats who will vote for him, given his strong knowledge of economic issues”
While this demo has happily voted for many repubs through the years and will continue to so do, Romney won’t be one of them. I lump him into the the same category as Al Gore and John Edwards.