Perseverance Could Payoff for the GOP’s Second Tier
- Wednesday, September 16, 2009, 4:30
- Iowa, News Center, Top Story
- 1,038 views
- 22 comments
Many people have speculated that once former Governor Terry Branstad enters the gubernatorial race, the current field of Republican candidates will shrink substantially. Some speculate that a Branstad candidacy would clear the entire field except for Bob Vander Plaats. The chances of a two person primary between Branstad and Vander Plaats are slim. While a Branstad candidacy will winnow the field, I believe that at least three candidates will remain throughout the remainder of the primary.
Both Branstad and Vander Plaats should be considered top tier candidates in the Republican gubernatorial primary. If Branstad enters the race, he will bring with him a large, dedicated group of supporters. Vander Plaats is the only current candidate who has a large support base of his own. He also has shown the ability to raise the necessary funds to run an effective primary campaign.
While it’s only natural to want to focus on the battle between Branstad and Vander Plaats, it would be foolish to ignore or diminish the viability of the person who is able to emerge as the third candidate in this race. In fact, there very well could be some advantages to being the alternative candidate to both Branstad and Vander Plaats. If the primary turns out to be as heated as many think it will, this candidate would be in the prime position to pick up a lot of supporters who are disillusioned with both of the top candidates.
This scenario would not be new to politics. What is being describing is similar to what transpired earlier this year in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Virginia. In that race, former state delegate Brian Moran, who was endorsed and supported by many of the state’s Democratic Party officials, was being opposed by Creigh Deeds, a state senator, early in the campaign.
In January of this year, just six months before the primary, former Hillary Clinton advisor and DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe joined the race and was deemed the frontrunner. On election night, Moran finished third, and McAuliffe finished in second place to State Senator Deeds. Deeds’ campaign spent $14.49 for every vote he received in the primary; McAuliffe spent $68.25 per vote.
With so much time spent on the perceived front runners for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, it might be wise to look at who is best positioned to be the Creigh Deeds of the GOP gubernatorial primary in Iowa. Below are my rankings from one to five for the remaining candidates. The candidate who is ranked number one is the person most likely to stay in the race and have a chance at pulling off a huge upset next June.
1. Rants: If any candidate has the intangible qualities one needs to remain relevant in a crowed primary race, it’s State Representative Christopher Rants. Rants is probably the smartest candidate in the Republican primary, and his knowledge of how state government works is a huge asset. He is also known as a policy wonk, which means we you can expect a lot of big ideas from his campaign and harsh criticism of what his opponents are proposing. We have already seen this in the primary when Rants proposed a major overhaul of the property tax system and attacked numerous proposals from his chief rival, Bob Vander Plaats.
Rants also has a lot of fundraising connections. The years that he spent raising money for House Republicans helped him expand his rolodex like no other political candidate in Iowa. There is just one problem – a lot of his best fundraising contacts are the same people who want to see former Governor Terry Branstad run. Still, Rants knows the right people and has the ability to do more with less.
While Rants may find the fundraising trail to be frustrating, Rants has developed a lot of good relationships with the members of the Iowa press corps. That means, when Rants attacks, there is a good likelihood that his press release is going to find its way into the news cycle. It also means that, when news breaks, reporters will seek comment from him. His ability to impact a news cycle is unmatched by his opponents.
If there is any candidate who can lay low, conserve campaign resources, and remain relevant, it’s Chris Rants. While he has the most positives, he also has the most negatives. Many activists already have an opinion about Rants that was formed while he was Speaker of the House and Minority Leader. There is no doubt in my mind that he has recently changed as a person and a candidate, but it’s never easy convincing people to give you a second chance.
2. Fong: The concept of running a young, intelligent, unknown candidate from eastern Iowa makes a lot of sense politically. The only question that remains is whether or not Christian Fong is the right candidate to fit that bill. To his credit, Fong has done more than any of the other candidates who are included in this list. He has hired a well-known campaign manager who has experience in running presidential caucus campaigns, the daily operation of the Republican Party of Iowa, and has worked on a gubernatorial campaign. Fong was also the first candidate to run statewide radio ads, a move that his campaign hopes raise his name ID across the state.
Fong wouldn’t be able to do those things without some success in the fundraising department. In July, Fong announced that he had raised $100,000 for his campaign. That’s an impressive amount of money for a newcomer, especially when you consider that it is almost as much as then-Secretary of Agriculture Patty Judge raised for an entire year for her gubernatorial campaign in 2006.
3. Roberts: While State Representative Rod Roberts is basically an unknown legislator, he has done an admirable job in traveling the state and introducing himself to people. If you are looking for a candidate to bring the house down with a rousing speech, he’s not your guy, but if you are looking for a respectful, competent candidate he might be the candidate you are looking for. Roberts might struggle to distinguish himself from the other candidates, but his calm, mature manner makes him a safe candidate for people to support.
4. Behn: Like Rod Roberts, Sen. Jerry Behn doesn’t really have a niche. That said, he does have a solid conservative voting record and knowledge of how state government operates. Since his announcement, Behn hasn’t been in the news or attended many event. After initially committing to attend the Iowa Family Policy Center’s gubernatorial forum, Behn backed out for unknown reasons. His decision not to talk to 300 people last Saturday is puzzling. When you are one of the unknowns in the race, you need to use opportunities like the IFPC forum to introduce yourself to people. Behn’s decision not to participate makes people wonder if he is a serious candidate or not.
5. McKinley: Rounding out the list is State Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley. Since announcing his intentions to “aggressively campaign” for governor, McKinley has been absent from every political gathering in the state. He has also indicated that, if Branstad does run for governor, he will drop out and focus on his current job of leading Republicans in the State Senate.
McKinley’s indecisiveness since announcing his gubernatorial campaign hasn’t just sunk any aspirations he may have for higher office in the future, but it might also have impacted his effectiveness as the Senate Republicans’ chief fundraiser, recruiter, and strategist. With McKinley not devoting his full attention to his gubernatorial campaign and not having communicated his progress in advancing the Republican cause in his current position, one might question if he is the right person to lead Republicans in the State Senate.
Whoever is capable of becoming the alternative candidate to Terry Branstad and Bob Vander Plaats might find himself in a desirable position. Patty Judge wasn’t able to mount much of a gubernatorial campaign, but she found herself on the ticket, and her campaign manager is now the executive director of the Iowa Democratic Party. Judge didn’t team up with Culver until after the fundraising disclosures came out. A similar scenario could play out with Rants, Fong, or Roberts.
Another possibility is that no candidate reaches the 35% threshold required to secure the GOP nomination in the primary election. That almost happened in the Republican primary in 2002. The more candidates who are on the ballot in June of 2010, the more likely it is that the nominee will be selected at the Republican state convention. Many believe that would lead to a Vander Plaats victory, but anything can happen once the deal making begins at a convention.
Photo by Dave Davidson
About the Author
Craig Robinson has written 700 stories on this site.
Craig Robinson serves as the founder and Editor-in-Chief of TheIowaRepublican.com. Prior to founding Iowa's largest conservative news site, Robinson served as the Political Director of the Republican Party of Iowa during the 2008 Iowa Caucuses. In that capacity, Robinson planned and organized the largest political event in 2007, the Iowa Straw Poll, in Ames, Iowa. Robinson also organized the 2008 Republican caucuses in Iowa, and was later dispatched to Nevada to help with the caucuses there. Robinson cut his teeth in Iowa politics during the 2000 caucus campaign of businessman Steve Forbes and has been involved with most major campaigns in the state since then. His extensive political background and rolodex give him a unique perspective from which to monitor the political pulse of Iowa.
22 Comments on “Perseverance Could Payoff for the GOP’s Second Tier”
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Am I the only one who thinks it would be a GOP disaster if Branstad gets in? Chet Culver could go through everything about Branstads record and we all know that even though Branstad was a fairly good governor, he had some policies that were not helpful to Iowa. Chet would love to go against someone with a record. Also, 2010 is an anti-incumbant year. I don’t care if you are a D or an R. Iowans are sick of the people at the capitol and the GOP is often portrayed as establishment “out-of-touch” type of party. And, then we go nominate a 4-term governor? Way to think backward GOP. I think the GOP has a problem with recruiting new leaders to the party and by having Branstad wipe the floor of the young candidates, what message does that send to those who are young and want to run for office. They may not, because the GOP will always go back to the past and recruit some old guy (the McCain syndrome). The GOP accross the state is having trouble with recruiting, and now when we have 6 younger guys (younger than Branstad at least) in the primary, we just want to ignore them and go back to the same-old GOP establishment type. In order to win next year we need to be 1)Anti-establishment, 2) Be part of the tea-party movement, 3) Recruit young voters and supporters, 3) Be trushworthy and honest, 4) stick to the platform, 5) concentrate on fiscal and moral issues, 6) We need a candidate that comes accross as an everyday Iowan who could relate to the issues we care about. 7) you can’t have a record that Culver can point to and say you are worse than he is.
Just one thought Robinson, Fong hired a campaign manager with presidential caucus experience? Popma ran Gary Bauer’s race. I don’t think that counts. Fong has people around him who sell their endorsements and then don’t do shit because they arent any good. Popma, Grubbs and Failor Jr. are good examples. What he needs is a good B – list Hollywood celebrity endorsement like mine. Just a one time fee and no monthly retainer like those other hacks. And another thing, Fong needs to lose that lisp or people are going to accuse of him of being a certified friend of Dorothy if you know what I mean. That may be good in Hollywood but it ain’t no good in politics from what I gather in the republican party.
Yes Stacia you are.
Stacia, Everyday Iowans have jobs. Everyday Iowans have not been running for Governor for a decade straight. Everyday Iowans don’t run for governor three times without having held elective office first. Everyday Iowans know that 60 is not 80 (McCain). Everyday Iowans know that a 4 term governor trumps a 3 term loser. Everyday iowans know that part of the reason we have been losing is because we embrace candidates like Bob and then take our marbles and go home we he loses, again and again and again. Everyday Iowans know that when Bob is on the ticket, Iowans reject him. Everyday Iowans are tired of Bob and his ego driven infinite quest for terrace Hill.
Assuming Branstad runs, I think Fong and Rants will stay in, at least for a while. I don’t know whether either of them will last as long as the primary. Maybe they will compete to be selected as Branstad’s running mate.
I find it remarkable that a former House speaker doesn’t seem to have any current or former state legislators endorsing him for governor. Clearly Rants’ leadership style left a lot to be desired.
I think the convention scenario becomes irrelevant with Branstad in the field. I see no way he wouldn’t get 35 percent of the vote in a primary. If Branstad surprises us and decides not to run, the nomination could end up being decided at the state convention. In that sense, a crowded field helps Vander Plaats the most.
No, Stacia, you’re not. You have some valid points.
BVP and Rants are both well spoken on the issues and ispire enthusiasm. They could both mop the floor with Debt Culver in a debate.
@Stacia I agree with your points. Brandstad VS Culver will not excite the base or the independents as both men have pretty much identical records.
I finally like Rants but i fear his honesty is not going to do him any favors, this is the republican party and you need to tell them what they want to hear, not what they need to hear.
Fong still has no chance, i don’t care how much money the religious organizations pour into his “campaign” we all know who his puppet masters are. also being pro-tax and giving money to liberal democrats will not do him any favors.
BVP burnt a few bridges when he dropped out last time. he let a lot of people down.
the rest have no chance unless something really amazing happens.
I will not vote for Branstad-even if he is the R nominee. Stacia reminds us about McCain and we should not forget about Bob Dole. Why can’t Republicans go with some of the younger faces? We are so tired of running old, tired horses that have gone out to pasture (or should have been put out long ago). There are so many good horses in the barn that still have energy and new strength & ideas. (I agree with Craig about Rants.) Watch the younger voters & Tea Party voters stay home if it is Branstad. The Iowa GOP will never take back the legislature or the Governor’s mansion if they run establishment candidate Branstad.
I think it’s strange that ‘Draft Branstad’ is advertising on the Iowa Independent website.
Rants has gained just enough steam the last two weeks to stay in the race as the anti-Branstad/BVP candidate. Fong may be able to stay in financially but money doesn’t buy elections in Iowa. The others are great people but you are likely right about them being done once Branstad announces.
Peggy, you crazy liberal. There’s probably an ad there so their pac can reach liberals like you that read the Iowa Independent.
The only thing the Iowa Independent is good for is shoddy journalism. I only visit to see what they’re up to and occasionally debunk their outlandish, partisan stories.. All one has to do is look at the near-pulseless comment sections to see how much traffic that site gets.
Why ANY Republican would attempt to dredge up support in a place like that is truly baffling.
Peggy, you crazy liberal, it appears to be a Google ad. And as for their traffic, if it ain’t much, you are probably a substantial part of it, you crazy liberal.
Peg sez: “The only thing the Iowa Independent is good for is shoddy journalism. I only visit to see what they’re up to and occasionally debunk their outlandish, partisan stories.”
Ya-yah, when I was a pup there was a standard line among adults like, “I only read it (Playboy) for the articles.”
You’re hilarious, ConDem.
Don’t quit your day job.
It’s 4pm and less than 400 people have read about the second tier. That says it all.
ConservativeMom,
I think it is hilarious that after you said I was the only one who thought it would be a disaster to have Branstad be our nominee, a whole bunch of people pretty much agreed with me.
Drama, I didn’t even mention Bob in my response, so don’t use a rebuttal using Bob’s name. I was talking about the current field as a whole vs. former gov. Branstad.
Oh Stacia, there are a whole bunch of people who think you are an idiot paid to be on here by BVP. They just don’t post.
C/Mom sez: “Oh Stacia, there are a whole bunch of people who think you are an idiot paid to be on here by BVP”
What? There’s money to be made pimpin those political sluts on these blogs?
Geeze, count me in. Where can I sign up?
ConservativeMom, Oh, yes, I’m here “because I am paid by BVP.” Oh, right (insert rolling eyes emoticon here.) I didn’t even mention Bob in my original post. I was basically standing up for all the candidate running right now. Hey, if you read my paragraph real close, you should be able to dicipher a code to all the conservatives saying “vote for BVP!” Yeah, you caught me. I wave the white flag…or I mean my homemade BVP banner in surrender.
Stacia, are you paranoid? Or is it just anxiety you are treated for?
2501 Grand, I think it’s both.