If Northey runs what about Bob and Rants?

Friday, May 22, 2009, 10:44
Constitution Daily
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11 comments

northey-copy With Bill Northey hiring political operatives Tim Moran and Marcus Branstad, speculation of Northey running for governor is at an all time high. Since none of us really know his true plans and can only speculate, I thought I’d take a look at what a Northey for Governor effort would mean for Bob Vander Plaats, Christopher Rants, and the invisible candidate of Doug Gross.

Northey is known as a very nice man with good principles and great character. As a newcomer to politics in a horrible election year for Republicans in 2006, Northey was able to win the Sec. of Agriculture’s office by 27,000 votes or 2.8 percent. Obviously this doesn’t mean he’s a shoo-in but it definitely gives him an advantage over BVP and Rants.

Northey also has done an excellent job balancing the Sec. of Agriculture position with appealing to the conservative base. Since BVP has made it his mission to be the most conservative candidate in the race, Northey will have to answer the life and marriage questions with conviction, but since he is trusted by Republicans, he will only have to answer them once. Northey also has a leg up on BVP in many people’s view because he’s held elected office and has run his department well. Basically, he has experience and BVP does not.

BVP does have Sioux County though. In 2002, Sioux County made up 4 percent of the Republican vote in the Primary Election. Of those 7,811 votes, BVP garnered 84 percent of them or 6,565. That doesn’t sound like a whole lot but 6,565 votes comes out to over 3 percent of the vote. But with a Northey run, I don’t know that BVP will be able to count on those votes. Looking back to 2002, Doug Gross didn’t have much luck over there and Sukup didn’t give that county much time. Northey is well known in that area, is a farmer, and a conservative – three things key to gaining support in NW Iowa.

For Rants I’m afraid a Northey run would all but take him out of the race. I’m not saying he should drop out if Northey runs but I think he will find it hard to find his niche. Since BVP is the social conservative in the race, Rants has the opportunity to fill the everyday Republican role well. If Northey does run, Rants loses that niche to Northey and can only hope to get the moderates and bits and pieces of Northey’s and BVP’s supporters. That’s a difficult thing to do against an entrenched BVP and a very well liked Northey. On the other hand, Rants does have the fiscal issues down. Other than Vaudt, Rants may be the best in the state to describe the financial mess we have in Iowa. I don’t know that he’ll articulate the major reform type changes we need to make but he’ll definitely articulate a very good fiscal message.

We also must consider the yet to be named invisible candidate of Doug Gross. Most of you know my thoughts of that candidate’s chances but in case there is any doubt, I’ll clear it up. If Northey runs, he thumps a Doug Gross invisible candidate. In fact, if Northey runs, there will be no Doug Gross invisible candidate.

I’m interested to hear your thoughts on this as well. I love predictions, especially this early in a race.

Tags: Bill Northey

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11 Comments on “If Northey runs what about Bob and Rants?”

steve right wrote on 22 May, 2009, 11:29
This is a legitimate question and not intended to pick a fight (anymore a disclaimer is necessary). Does Northey’s support for a gas tax during the session hurt him in the primary? Will BVP or Rants use that against him? Does it even matter since it never passed (but could in 2010)?

I’d be curious to hear your takes on this, because I never see it brought up, which leads me to believe it’s not a big deal unless the Dems push it through next session.
Moderation in Everything wrote on 22 May, 2009, 12:04
Northey will have huge support from the business wing of the Party, whether or not he has a connection to Doug’s posse. I agree with the analysis that Northey trumps Rants. Also, Northey is a winner.
Iowa Cynic wrote on 22 May, 2009, 12:21
You know, having someone run against Culver who is intelligent (and has values based in an era sometime after the death of Queen Victoria) is the only thing keeping me interested in the GOP after working for years for Republican candidates and office holders (for money even). By pissing all over good Republicans like Gross at every opportunity, sure maybe you’re making it more likely that your troglodyte candidate wins the primary, but you’re increasing the chances Culver wins the general. More and more I’m starting to wonder if it even matters…
SharpHawkeye wrote on 22 May, 2009, 12:55
If Northey jumps in, we might see a running mate “arms race” similar to what went on between Culver and Blouin in the 2006 primary.

Northey might try to pick up Rants as a running mate, forcing BVP to come up with a running mate. If that happens, BVP might go with Rob Roberts or someone similar. Alternately, Northey might try to scoop Rants by picking up BVP as a running mate, though I’m not sure he’d give up his run so easily. Always a bridesmade, never a bride, you know.

Or Northey might try to go completely outside the field of contenders and pick up a woman, like Linda Upmeyer or someone from the Des Moines area like Brad Zaun to balance the ticket.
Moderation in Everything wrote on 22 May, 2009, 13:12
Iowa Cynic: I agree with your comment about Doug Gross. I catch all kinds of hell from people on these posts for pointing out that Doug is a top notch Republican worthy of our highest admiration. What happens is that the noisy right picks on him incessantly thinking that there is some groundswell against him. That is simply not the case. The business lobby loves him and respects him for all his contributions. The Waco escapees want the Party to themselves. I fear that they may get their way and be forever consigned to the minority. Another lovely poll out today showing only 22% of the electorate identifying themselves as Repbulicans. And what do we do. Spend hours debating the merits of calling the democratic party the “Socialist Democratic Party.” Pathetic.
Thinking wrote on 22 May, 2009, 13:18
Only 22% of the electorate identifying themselves as Republicans. And what do we do? We call a large portion of our base ingrates and Waco escapees! Why is it that people are leaving the party? Maybe its because we, just like the Democratics, are talking out of both sides of our mouth. Politics as usual is a losing recipe with any electorate in 2010…
Moderation in Everything wrote on 22 May, 2009, 13:22
Thinking: Get real. It’s the moderates that have been chased out of the party. Not the fringe. The fringe are in control and have run the party into the ground. Only 12% of the electorate characterize themselves as “fundamentalist.” The base is no longer the base. 12% is a mighty slim reed with which to build a party.
Lydia wrote on 22 May, 2009, 13:49
Yep, it’s those right-wing religious wacos running the party. That’s why Michael Steele is the RNC chairman, and John McCain was the presidential nominee (and why Danny Carroll is not the chair of RPI).

Wow, you’re so right, those right-wingers have so much control.
Deace voted for Obama wrote on 22 May, 2009, 13:56
These types of conversations are extremely damaging. Can’t we find enough fault with Democrats to occupy our time instead of participating in this circular firing squad.

Wait until all candidates for governor are announced. Then choose the one you want and work for them. After that keep your eyes on the real target–Big Spender Culver!! This is the one we should really be fearing.
Reaganesque wrote on 22 May, 2009, 14:03
Ok, CD, you say you want predictions, here you go. Northey runs for guv’nor, Northey will win for guv’nor. All other comers would lose. I say this w/o having a dog in the race, so long as Culver is taken out of office. I am basing this on very little, but taking Ockham’s razor to electoral politics, Northey doesn’t have the baggage that I believe would plague the other candidates from the right side of the aisle. Essentially, I believe running an Obama-style campaign (i.e.,filled with platitudes on the need for change while evading substance) would be my advice to the man. If I’m Rants or BVP, I would try to nail him on what steve mentioned, but I don’t think it sticks too terribly much, assuming gas stays under 3 bucks. Culver is vulnerable now b/c he wasn’t able to get union issues passed. Their disenfranchisement=our gain, if the cards are played right.
Timmy wrote on 22 May, 2009, 14:42
Reaganesque said “Their disenfranchisement=our gain, if the cards are played right.” Yeah, but we are the only ones that would fold with 4 aces!!! Also, the fringe would be up in arms because we were playing in the first place. Mod & Cynic, I always thought I was conservative, but if some folks had their way I’d hafta leave too!!!