2016 Caucus

June 18th, 2015

Walker Maintains Lead in Latest Iowa Caucus Poll – Rand Paul and Rick Perry big movers.


A new poll of likely Republican caucus goers again shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker leading the 16-member field of Republican candidates by six points. The poll was released on Thursday afternoon in Washington D.C. at a legislative staff briefing that included Senators Ernst and Grassley.

The IVR poll, produced similar results to the latest Iowa Poll conducted by the Des Moines Register, but it does show some movement in the middle of the pack. The biggest mover was Kentucky Senator Rand Paul who dropped five-points since the Register’s poll at the end of May. Paul’s drop may be a result of comments he made about Republicans being responsible for the creation of ISIS at the same time the poll was in the field.

Moving in the other direction in former Texas Governor Rick Perry. Perry polled at three percent in the Register’s poll, but in the Advantage Poll that was commissioned by the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association he polled at 7 percent, which was good enough for sixth place in the poll. Perry also may have benefited for the fact that his campaign launched shortly before the poll was in the field.

Below is the polling memo and the full results of the poll.

The Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) recently commissioned Advantage, Inc. of Alexandria, Virginia to conduct an automated telephone survey of likely Republican caucus attendees. A sample of confirmed GOP voters was screened for likely participation in the upcoming Republican presidential caucus. N=1,235 interviews were successfully completed in Iowa. The margin of error for a random sample of this size is plus/minus 2.8% at a 95% confidence level. This information was gathered as interviewees responded via a telephone dial pad. Interviews were conducted June 8-10 throughout Iowa, the week after Senator Joni Ernst widely covered “Roast and Ride” event featuring many of the potential candidates.

It is also important to note that to the best of our knowledge, this is by far the largest sample of likely Republican caucus-goers in a public poll this year. The poll also allowed the voters to choose from all 16 commonly mentioned candidates and potential candidates vying for the presidential nomination of the Republican Party. Of other public polls, only the recent Des Moines Register “Iowa Poll” also included all 16 potential candidates.

While not all these candidates have announced their intention of seeking the office, all names were treated equally. After screening for likely caucus participation, interviewees were asked:

“Still thinking about the Republican caucuses — If the Republican Presidential caucuses were held today, and you had to make a choice, for which of the following candidates would you probably vote?” — (NAMES READ & RANDOMIZED)

Scott Walker                         19%
Ben Carson                            13%
Jeb Bush                                11%
Marco Rubio                         9%
Mike Huckabee                    8%
Rick Perry                               7%
Ted Cruz                                 6%
Rand Paul                              5%
Chris Christie                        3%
Carly Fiorina                         3%
Rick Santorum                      2%
Donald Trump                      2%
Lindsay Graham                   2%
Bobby Jindal                         2%
John Kasich                           2%
George Pataki                       1%





Photo by Dave Davidson – Prezography.com


About the Author

Craig Robinson
Craig Robinson serves as the founder and Editor-in-Chief of TheIowaRepublican.com. Prior to founding Iowa's largest conservative news site, Robinson served as the Political Director of the Republican Party of Iowa during the 2008 Iowa Caucuses. In that capacity, Robinson planned and organized the largest political event in 2007, the Iowa Straw Poll, in Ames, Iowa. Robinson also organized the 2008 Republican caucuses in Iowa, and was later dispatched to Nevada to help with the caucuses there. Robinson cut his teeth in Iowa politics during the 2000 caucus campaign of businessman Steve Forbes and has been involved with most major campaigns in the state since then. His extensive political background and rolodex give him a unique perspective from which to monitor the political pulse of Iowa.

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