2016 Caucus

June 18th, 2015

Walker Maintains Lead in Latest Iowa Caucus Poll – Rand Paul and Rick Perry big movers.


A new poll of likely Republican caucus goers again shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker leading the 16-member field of Republican candidates by six points. The poll was released on Thursday afternoon in Washington D.C. at a legislative staff briefing that included Senators Ernst and Grassley.

The IVR poll, produced similar results to the latest Iowa Poll conducted by the Des Moines Register, but it does show some movement in the middle of the pack. The biggest mover was Kentucky Senator Rand Paul who dropped five-points since the Register’s poll at the end of May. Paul’s drop may be a result of comments he made about Republicans being responsible for the creation of ISIS at the same time the poll was in the field.

Moving in the other direction in former Texas Governor Rick Perry. Perry polled at three percent in the Register’s poll, but in the Advantage Poll that was commissioned by the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association he polled at 7 percent, which was good enough for sixth place in the poll. Perry also may have benefited for the fact that his campaign launched shortly before the poll was in the field.

Below is the polling memo and the full results of the poll.

The Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) recently commissioned Advantage, Inc. of Alexandria, Virginia to conduct an automated telephone survey of likely Republican caucus attendees. A sample of confirmed GOP voters was screened for likely participation in the upcoming Republican presidential caucus. N=1,235 interviews were successfully completed in Iowa. The margin of error for a random sample of this size is plus/minus 2.8% at a 95% confidence level. This information was gathered as interviewees responded via a telephone dial pad. Interviews were conducted June 8-10 throughout Iowa, the week after Senator Joni Ernst widely covered “Roast and Ride” event featuring many of the potential candidates.

It is also important to note that to the best of our knowledge, this is by far the largest sample of likely Republican caucus-goers in a public poll this year. The poll also allowed the voters to choose from all 16 commonly mentioned candidates and potential candidates vying for the presidential nomination of the Republican Party. Of other public polls, only the recent Des Moines Register “Iowa Poll” also included all 16 potential candidates.

While not all these candidates have announced their intention of seeking the office, all names were treated equally. After screening for likely caucus participation, interviewees were asked:

“Still thinking about the Republican caucuses — If the Republican Presidential caucuses were held today, and you had to make a choice, for which of the following candidates would you probably vote?” — (NAMES READ & RANDOMIZED)

Scott Walker                         19%
Ben Carson                            13%
Jeb Bush                                11%
Marco Rubio                         9%
Mike Huckabee                    8%
Rick Perry                               7%
Ted Cruz                                 6%
Rand Paul                              5%
Chris Christie                        3%
Carly Fiorina                         3%
Rick Santorum                      2%
Donald Trump                      2%
Lindsay Graham                   2%
Bobby Jindal                         2%
John Kasich                           2%
George Pataki                       1%





Photo by Dave Davidson – Prezography.com


About the Author

Craig Robinson
Craig Robinson is the founder and editor-in-chief of TheIowaRepublican.com, a political news and commentary site he launched in March of 2009. Robinson’s political analysis is respected across party lines, which has allowed him to build a good rapport with journalist across the country. Robinson has also been featured on Iowa Public Television’s Iowa Press, ABC’s This Week, and other local television and radio programs. Campaign’s & Elections Magazine recognized Robinson as one of the top influencers of the 2012 Iowa Caucuses. A 2013 Politico article sited Robinson and TheIowaRepublican.com as the “premier example” of Republican operatives across the country starting up their own political news sites. His website has been repeatedly praised as the best political blog in Iowa by the Washington Post, and in January of 2015, Politico included him on the list of local reporters that matter in the early presidential states. Robinson got his first taste of Iowa politics in 1999 while serving as Steve Forbes’ southeast Iowa field coordinator where he was responsible for organizing 27 Iowa counties. In 2007, Robinson served as the Political Director of the Republican Party of Iowa where he was responsible for organizing the 2007 Iowa Straw Poll and the 2008 First-in-the-Nation Iowa Caucuses. Following the caucuses, he created his own political news and commentary site, TheIowaRepublcian.com. Robinson is also the President of Global Intermediate, a national mail and political communications firm with offices in West Des Moines, Iowa, and Washington, D.C. Robinson utilizes his fundraising and communications background to service Global’s growing client roster with digital and print marketing. Robinson is a native of Goose Lake, Iowa, and a 1999 graduate of St. Ambrose University in Davenport, where he earned degrees in history and political science. Robinson lives in Ankeny, Iowa, with his wife, Amanda, and son, Luke. He is an active member of the Lutheran Church of Hope.

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