INDEPENDENCE, IA – In a background memo distributed to members of the press today, the Braley campaign argued that the new IA-01 is more Democratic than the old IA-01 by citing to the fact that a Republican governor won the new district in 2010! Braley also concealed from the press prior congressional race performance, while failing to include significant Republican registration gains.
1. Braley’s own memo cites a Republican governor’s victory in IA-01 as evidence the district is more Democratic!
Braley’s memo states: “In the 2010 Governor’s race, the Democratic candidate would have performed a whopping 1.5 percent more strongly in the new First District.” But the following table included in the memo conclusively shows Gov. Branstad winning the new IA-01 by 2 percentage points!
In other words, Braley is arguing that Gov. Culver would have lost less bad in the new IA-01 than the old IA-01 and from this Braley would like members of the press to believe the new district is more favorable to Democrats?
2. Braley conceals past performance for the very office he is running for — Congress!
Braley’s memo states: “Redistricting Has Made the New First Congressional District More Democratic.” As evidence, congressional candidate Bruce Braley cherry picked two prior presidential races and one governor’s race, while not addressing the key data point for his race — prior congressional results!
Why would Braley conceal from the press prior performance by congressional candidates in IA-01? Because prior congressional races conclusively demonstrate that Republican congressional candidates outperform their Democratic counterparts.
The fact is Republican congressional candidates have outperformed Democratic candidates 51.18% to 46.27% in competitive congressional elections during presidential election cycles in the new IA-01. Even in non-competitive elections, Republican congressional candidates have outperformed Democratic candidates 49.51% to 48.09%.
3. Braley brushes off significant Republican registration gains and Democratic registration losses!
What Braley concealed from the press today is that the voter registration statistics in the new IA-01 are significantly more favorable to a Republican congressional candidate than the old IA-01. Democrats maintained a 8.24% registration advantage over Republicans in the old IA-01. This Democratic registration advantage is cut nearly in half to 4.53% in the new IA-01.
The short-term voter registration trends in the new IA-01 also give a Republican congressional candidate an edge heading into the general election. The short-term voter registration trends in the new IA-01 reveal that Democrats have lost 17,248 registered voters compared with just 2,028 for Republicans in the new IA-01, resulting in a net gain for Republicans of 2.81%.
Of particular concern for Democrats are the short-term voter registration trends in the three largest metro areas in IA-01, including Linn County (Reps +1.5%/Dems -1.88%), Black Hawk County (Reps +1.28%/Dems -1.30%), and Dubuque County: Reps 1.01%/Dems -1.68%).
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