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July 13th, 2011

TIR Poll: 28 Percent of Caucus Goers Would Definitely Not Vote for Gingrich

For the last couple of days, 2012 Caucus Poll has focused on which candidates Iowa caucus goers support.  Today, we look at which candidates that they don’t like.  The survey asked respondents if there are any candidates that they would definitely not vote for.  Five candidates broke into double digits, but one candidate saw nearly a third of likely caucus goers say that they would definitely not vote for him – Newt Gingrich.

The poll shows that 28 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers would not vote for Gingrich.  Sarah Palin saw 18 percent say they would not vote for her.  The other three candidates who broke double digits were Ron Paul with 15 percent, Rudy Giuliani at 14 percent, and Mitt Romney 13 percent.

Gingrich’s standing with Iowans has dropped substantially since he launched his presidential campaign.  Iowa has been a popular destination for Gingrich over the past decade.  If anyone has been infatuated with the First-in-the-Nation state, it’s been him.  Gingrich has been coming to Iowa to headline fundraisers, promote his books, rally Republicans, and promote winning issues for Republicans.  One would be hard pressed to find a candidate who has done more to reach out and talk to Iowans over the past few years than Newt Gingrich.

In August of 2010, Gingrich performed well in the TIR Poll.  He finished in third place behind Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney with an impressive 14 percent.  In a second ballot that didn’t include Huckabee, Gingrich’s support increased to 18 percent.  Public Policy Polling showed Gingrich at 12 percent in its Iowa poll in late May, but since then, his numbers have been in a steady decline.  In the latest TIR Poll, Gingrich finished with just 4 percent, but the fact that 28 percent of those surveyed said they would definitely not vote for him is devastating for his campaign.

The prospects for Gingrich’s presidential campaign were good in Iowa.  Even though his candidacy hit some turbulence as he officially entered the race, he generated plenty of interest on his initial 17-city tour.  However, instead of hunkering down in Iowa while dealing with his comments about the Ryan budget plan or his Tiffany’s debt, Gingrich took a two-week vacation in Greece.

While Gingrich was vacationing, his campaign unraveled.  His once legitimate campaign quickly became a soap opera as his entire campaign staff walked out on him.  The poll indicates that Gingrich lost more than just members of his staff last month.  He also lost credibility with Iowa caucuses goers.

The other candidates who also have a significant amount of the electorate who will not support them is somewhat expected.  Romney may be the only candidate who could be considered a surprise on this list, but it’s not hard to understand why he ranked relatively high, or low as the case may be.  Thus far, Romney has ignored Iowa, and the healthcare reform legislation he signed into law as governor of Massachusetts is unpopular since it is considered to be the predecessor to Obamacare.

The table below shows how all the candidates fared with the question.  It also includes their favorable and unfavorable numbers.

Photo by Dave Davidson

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About the Author

Craig Robinson
Craig Robinson is the founder and editor-in-chief of, a political news and commentary site he launched in March of 2009. Robinson’s political analysis is respected across party lines, which has allowed him to build a good rapport with journalist across the country. Robinson has also been featured on Iowa Public Television’s Iowa Press, ABC’s This Week, and other local television and radio programs. Campaign’s & Elections Magazine recognized Robinson as one of the top influencers of the 2012 Iowa Caucuses. A 2013 Politico article sited Robinson and as the “premier example” of Republican operatives across the country starting up their own political news sites. His website has been repeatedly praised as the best political blog in Iowa by the Washington Post, and in January of 2015, Politico included him on the list of local reporters that matter in the early presidential states. Robinson got his first taste of Iowa politics in 1999 while serving as Steve Forbes’ southeast Iowa field coordinator where he was responsible for organizing 27 Iowa counties. In 2007, Robinson served as the Political Director of the Republican Party of Iowa where he was responsible for organizing the 2007 Iowa Straw Poll and the 2008 First-in-the-Nation Iowa Caucuses. Following the caucuses, he created his own political news and commentary site, Robinson is also the President of Global Intermediate, a national mail and political communications firm with offices in West Des Moines, Iowa, and Washington, D.C. Robinson utilizes his fundraising and communications background to service Global’s growing client roster with digital and print marketing. Robinson is a native of Goose Lake, Iowa, and a 1999 graduate of St. Ambrose University in Davenport, where he earned degrees in history and political science. Robinson lives in Ankeny, Iowa, with his wife, Amanda, and son, Luke. He is an active member of the Lutheran Church of Hope.

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