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December 23rd, 2011

So What If Paul Wins Iowa?

Once again, the national media and some well-connected Iowa Republicans are freaking out over the possibility that Ron Paul could win the Iowa Caucuses.

Politico’s Jonathan Martin believes that a Paul victory would cause “irreparable harm” to the caucuses. Martin quotes a number of prominent Iowans in his article. Kraig Paulsen, the Speaker of the Iowa House, said that he is worried that Paul is “perverting the process” because Democrats and independents might caucus for him. Doug Gross, former gubernatorial candidate who has connections with the more moderate wing of the Republican Party said a Paul victory would be a “mortal” blow.

Iowans have gotten used to the national media declaring that the caucuses are dead. Earlier this year, the media proclaimed that the caucuses were irrelevant because Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman were not campaigning here. Then the caucuses didn’t matter because many candidates were not doing the retail politicking like in previous years. The media also tested the current “Ron Paul is going to kill the caucuses argument” after he almost won the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames.

Gross has soured on the caucuses ever since Mike Huckabee soundly defeated Mitt Romney in the 2008 caucuses. Gross was Romney’s Iowa chairman. What’s sad is that it now seems that more and more Iowans are beginning to believe this nonsense. It seems that when it comes to Ron Paul, those who don’t agree with him lose their critical thinking skills and begin to act on emotion instead of reason.

Ron Paul might not be my cup of tea, but nobody can deny that he has worked hard, built a statewide grassroots organization, participated in most major Iowa events, and spent a lot of money on the airwaves getting his message out to voters. Paul has done everything that we expect candidates to do.

Paul has run a textbook campaign in Iowa, and now, all of the sudden, people are starting to act like he should be disqualified because of his positions on certain issues. A lot of Republicans refer to President Obama’s policies as socialist, but their treatment of Paul is also un-American and uncalled for.

Maybe instead of lashing out at Paul, they should instead be critical of those candidates who have either ignored or worked to diminish the caucuses by not campaigning here. If you don’t support the issues that Paul stands for, work to defeat him instead of trying to undermine a potential Paul victory.

If anything, a Paul victory in the caucuses will prove that Republicans of all stripes can do well and win Iowa if they are willing to work hard and actually campaign in the state. Paul’s ability to do well in Iowa proves that Mitt Romney’s decision not to put forth much of an effort in Iowa was born out of laziness and weakness.

I find it ironic that many of those who are the most disturbed by prospects of Paul doing well in Iowa are also those who have either supported Romney in the past or would have no problem with him being the Republican nominee. If anything is to blame for Paul’s ability to do well in Iowa, it’s the absence of Romney in Iowa.

If Romney was really interested in winning, there is no doubt that he would have made a bigger effort here. If Romney was playing to actually win, he would also be highlighting Paul’s position on a number of issues. The truth is that Ron Paul is Mitt Romney’s greatest ally on January 3rd. A Ron Paul victory in Iowa is also a victory for Romney. Nobody has worked harder to make Iowa irrelevant this cycle than Romney has.

The “mortal” threat to the caucuses is not the candidate who has worked hard and invested in Iowa, it’s the national frontrunner who has not.


Photo by Dave Davidson –

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About the Author

Craig Robinson
Craig Robinson is the founder and editor-in-chief of, a political news and commentary site he launched in March of 2009. Robinson’s political analysis is respected across party lines, which has allowed him to build a good rapport with journalist across the country. Robinson has also been featured on Iowa Public Television’s Iowa Press, ABC’s This Week, and other local television and radio programs. Campaign’s & Elections Magazine recognized Robinson as one of the top influencers of the 2012 Iowa Caucuses. A 2013 Politico article sited Robinson and as the “premier example” of Republican operatives across the country starting up their own political news sites. His website has been repeatedly praised as the best political blog in Iowa by the Washington Post, and in January of 2015, Politico included him on the list of local reporters that matter in the early presidential states. Robinson got his first taste of Iowa politics in 1999 while serving as Steve Forbes’ southeast Iowa field coordinator where he was responsible for organizing 27 Iowa counties. In 2007, Robinson served as the Political Director of the Republican Party of Iowa where he was responsible for organizing the 2007 Iowa Straw Poll and the 2008 First-in-the-Nation Iowa Caucuses. Following the caucuses, he created his own political news and commentary site, Robinson is also the President of Global Intermediate, a national mail and political communications firm with offices in West Des Moines, Iowa, and Washington, D.C. Robinson utilizes his fundraising and communications background to service Global’s growing client roster with digital and print marketing. Robinson is a native of Goose Lake, Iowa, and a 1999 graduate of St. Ambrose University in Davenport, where he earned degrees in history and political science. Robinson lives in Ankeny, Iowa, with his wife, Amanda, and son, Luke. He is an active member of the Lutheran Church of Hope.

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