Once a month, a small group of central Iowa Republicans gathers at the Drake Diner for what we call Pancakes & Politics. There is no formal program, it’s just a group of plugged-in Republicans who like to get together to discus presidential politics among other things.
Yesterday’s group was our largest yet, as twelve of us braved the high temperatures of the diner’s patio. In addition to normal conversations, this time we surveyed the group to see what they think will happen in the upcoming Straw Poll and the caucuses this coming February.
The group predicts that Michele Bachmann will win the Ames Straw Poll. Bachmann received eight first place votes. Ron Paul received two first place votes, while Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum each got one first place vote.
Ron Paul was the clear favorite to finish in second place in Ames with the group. He received six-second place votes, followed by three for Pawlenty, two for Bachmann, one for Santorum and McCotter. Pawlenty was the favorite third place pick. He got five third place votes. Santorum and Paul each received two, and McCotter and Cain each got one-third place vote.
The second question asked people to predict the top three spots in the caucuses. While this is much more difficult to predict, the results were fascinating. Bachmann once again led the field of candidates, but she tied Rick Perry with five votes. In fact, Bachmann and Perry tied for first place votes with five, second place votes with three, and third place votes with one.
Mitt Romney was the favorite to finish in the third spot. He received five third place votes. He also got a first and two second place votes. Sarah Palin got one first, second, and third place vote. Ron Paul got a second and third place votes. Rick Santorum got two-second place votes and a third place vote. Tim Pawlenty got two third place votes.
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