Brad Zaun is leading Congressman Leonard Boswell according to a poll conducted for the Zaun campaign late last week. The poll, which was conducted by Victory Enterprises, shows Zaun leading Boswell 41% to 32%.
Iowa Republicans have long thought that Boswell is the most vulnerable Democrat in the state. In three of the last four elections, Republicans have recruited top-notch candidates to take on Boswell. While each of them did well against the well-funded incumbent, none of them were able to knock off Boswell. However, Zaun now has something that Boswell’s other tough opponents never had – a poll showing the Republican challenger in the lead.
Zaun is obviously helped in the poll by the amount of media attention the 3rd District primary received, but to have a significant lead over Boswell at the start of the general election campaign should boost Zaun’s chances.
Defeating Boswell will be no easy task. While Zaun has a healthy lead in the polls, people should also remember that Boswell has not begun to actively campaign. With over $600,000 in the bank, Boswell will be able to blanket the district with TV, radio, and mail.
For Zaun to be successful, he will need to have significant financial resources. He doesn’t need to out-raise Boswell, he just needs enough money to run a credible campaign.
To: Zaun for Congress
From: Brian Dumas, President
Date: June 21, 2010
Re: Executive Summary – IA-03 General Election Survey
Overview: Coming off a solid primary victory, Brad Zaun is very well positioned to win the 3rd Congressional District. Zaun holds a 9.2% lead over Boswell, even while having lower name identification. Despite a long record of electoral success, Congressman Boswell is extremely vulnerable; likely the most vulnerable of his entire career. Most glaring are his re-elect numbers. Over 50% of likely voters indicated it’s time to elect a new person, while only 28.6% of voters said Congressman Boswell should be re-elected. Congressman Boswell is underperforming even compared to a fellow democrat, as he trails President Obama by 12.5% on the favorability rating.
Ballot Test: (If the general election were held today for whom would you vote?)
Brad Zaun – 41.0%
Leonard Boswell – 31.8%
Undecided – 26.8%
Refused – .5%
**numbers do not add up to 100%, due to rounding
Other Key Findings:
• Congressman Boswell’s re-elect numbers are upside down. Of likely general election voters, 52.3% said it was time to give a new person a chance, while only 28.6% said he deserves to be re-elected. When you look at the intensity on this question, the numbers get worse for Boswell, as 41.0% of voters said “Definitely New Person” while 19.8% said “Definitely Re-elect”.
• Of likely general election voters, 52% believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, while 34.5% believe we’re headed in the right direction.
• Despite 5% more Democrats being surveyed than Republicans, the generic ballot test is a virtual dead heat. Of likely general election voters, 36.3% of voters said they generally plan to vote for more Democrat candidates, 35.3% said more Republican candidates and 28.5% were undecided.
The respondents were 43% Democrat, 38% Republican and 19% Independent. In addition, 48% were male and 52% female. 66% of the respondents were from Polk County with the remaining 34% balanced, according to previous off-year turnout models, from the remaining eleven counties that make-up the 3rd District.
Age breakouts were as follows: 18-34 – 13.3% 35-49 – 25.8% 50-63 – 32.0% 64+ – 29.0%
Methodology: The survey was conducted June 17, 2010, with live data collection. The universe for the survey consisted of registered voters with a history of participating in off-year general elections. Respondents were screened as to “how likely” they were to participate in the upcoming general election. A total of 400 likely voters participated in the survey, providing a margin of error of +/- 4.9% at a 95% confidence level.
Photo by Dave Davidson
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