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September 8th, 2010

There’s More Good news for Sen. Chuck Grassley’s Re-Election Prospects

Two more national observers place Iowa solidly in the Safe Republican column come Election Day.

First came Nate Silver’s Political Calculus on his FiveThirtyEight blog on the New York Times site over the weekend. Silver, whose model says the GOP has a 25-percent chance of capturing control of the Senate, now calculates Grassley has a 99-percent chance of retaining his seat. Silver’s methodology predicts a 19-percent winning margin for Grassley at 58-39 percent.

Next came Ken Rudin of National Public Radio, who rolled out his first review of the Senate races in two and wrote that “if anything, the situation has gotten more dire for the Democrats.” Wrapping up a forecast that predicts no Republican losses/no Dem. Pickups, Rudin concludes, “Three other GOP states — Arizona (John McCain), Georgia (Johnny Isakson) and Iowa (Charles Grassley) — move from Republican Favored to Safe Republican.”

No matter what the national observers are saying, look for Grassley to keep the heat on Conlin. His campaign just started airing two positive TV ads on Tuesday, which you can see below.

Senate Democrats are already circling the wagons in a desperate defensive move to protect their endangered. The net result as the word gets out nationally that Conlin’s campaign is a lost cause is that fewer Democrats are willing to waste their time, money or energy trying to prop it up.

Don’t forget, when Conlin jumped into the race, she talked about raising $10 million against Grassley. As of July 1, she was only $8.5 million or so short of that goal. Not only did struggle to raise $205,000 in the reporting period but she was forced to loan her campaign another $250,000.

Bottom line: As of July 1, loans from Conlin totaling $500,000-plus accounted for one-third of her total campaign treasury. She clearly has the personal wealth to write checks for another $8.5 million, but it’s looking less and less likely that even she’s willing to waste her money on a sinking ship. And these latest national assessments of the race don’t give her any encouragement.

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About the Author

Craig Robinson
Craig Robinson is the founder and editor-in-chief of TheIowaRepublican.com, a political news and commentary site he launched in March of 2009. Robinson’s political analysis is respected across party lines, which has allowed him to build a good rapport with journalist across the country. Robinson has also been featured on Iowa Public Television’s Iowa Press, ABC’s This Week, and other local television and radio programs. Campaign’s & Elections Magazine recognized Robinson as one of the top influencers of the 2012 Iowa Caucuses. A 2013 Politico article sited Robinson and TheIowaRepublican.com as the “premier example” of Republican operatives across the country starting up their own political news sites. His website has been repeatedly praised as the best political blog in Iowa by the Washington Post, and in January of 2015, Politico included him on the list of local reporters that matter in the early presidential states. Robinson got his first taste of Iowa politics in 1999 while serving as Steve Forbes’ southeast Iowa field coordinator where he was responsible for organizing 27 Iowa counties. In 2007, Robinson served as the Political Director of the Republican Party of Iowa where he was responsible for organizing the 2007 Iowa Straw Poll and the 2008 First-in-the-Nation Iowa Caucuses. Following the caucuses, he created his own political news and commentary site, TheIowaRepublcian.com. Robinson is also the President of Global Intermediate, a national mail and political communications firm with offices in West Des Moines, Iowa, and Washington, D.C. Robinson utilizes his fundraising and communications background to service Global’s growing client roster with digital and print marketing. Robinson is a native of Goose Lake, Iowa, and a 1999 graduate of St. Ambrose University in Davenport, where he earned degrees in history and political science. Robinson lives in Ankeny, Iowa, with his wife, Amanda, and son, Luke. He is an active member of the Lutheran Church of Hope.




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