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June 8th, 2010

The Geiger Counter – Primary Predictions from Battleground Iowa

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Written by: Battleground Iowa
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By Emily Geiger

Governor

Sorry to disappoint the BVP crowd, but the Register is going to be pretty close to right on this one. I’ve heard certain BVP supporters talking about the liberal Register and how they are skewing their poll because they want the allegedly moderate Branstad to win.

No folks, they want the actually liberal Culver to win. Branstad polls the best against Culver (in polls from several sources), and so if the BVP logic held true, the Register would be propping up someone other than Branstad to help their guy Culver out (which is what I think was happening with the Public Policy Polling poll that shrunk the gap to only a 15 point spread between Branstad and BVP and then put out a press release saying that BVP was within “striking distance.”)

Furthermore, while I wouldn’t be surprised if the Register skewed the way they ask their issue based questions in polls, I don’t think they are going to intentionally skew the election outcome questions or numbers. This is their credibility on the line. If they are way off, no one is going to pay attention to their polls anymore. They aren’t going to want to be wrong on the outcome races and the margin of victory.

The Register’s Iowa Poll is the only one that got the caucus results almost exactly spot on. I don’t remember Bob Vander Plaats or his crowd complaining about the Iowa Poll when it predicted correctly that Huckabee was going to win handily over Romney. It’s funny how time fades memories.

Branstad is going to be over 50%. I’ll say:

Terry Branstad 54%
Bob Vander Plaats 31%
Rod Roberts 15%

If I’m wrong, I think it will be that Roberts is lower and Branstad is higher.

3rd CD

Gibbons takes this one. Yes, he has the money in the race, but he is also likeable and both a solid social and fiscal conservative. This really is the type of candidate that Republicans of all stripes should be able to rally around. My birdies tell me he’s worked the counties outside of Polk hard and has significant grassroots organizations in place. In other words, the guy isn’t all about the money. He’s got a solid base of grassroots support as well as money, and together, that will win.

Zaun is well known and will show well, but sometimes being well known is a mixed bag because people know the good and the bad about you. For everyone I talk to who says what a nice guy he is, there’s someone else who brings up the bullying bill or some other less than stellar experience they’ve had with him or his family. I hope Zaun uses what he’s learned in this campaign to become a stronger conservative leader in the statehouse. Lord knows we need that.

Funk just comes off as not all that likeable or just plain angry. I know the country’s screwed up and people should be angry about that, but there’s more to it. I really think he is not just angry, but paranoid/scary angry, like the kind of guy who could arm a small militia with the supplies from his fallout shelter that he dug by hand himself so that no one else would know about it. Oh, and the fallout shelter also probably has a closed circuit video and audio surveillance system so he can monitor the outside world from the comfort of his lead-lined apocalyptic oasis. And yes, I’m betting he has a Geiger counter. Hope he figured out a way to include a bathroom in there. But I digress…

Jim Gibbons 40%
Brad Zaun 35%
Dave Funk 15%
Mark Rees 5%
All the others 5%

2nd CD

I haven’t written much about this one this time around, but I see that all H-E-double hockeysticks has broken loose in the corridor lately.

Miller-Meeks has the fact that she’s won the primary before. But then again, she went a little off the reservation with the seemingly pro-medical marijuana remarks.

Rathje seems to be running a better campaign than he ever has before, although that wouldn’t take much. And, dude, what’s with the tan? Somebody had to ask.

The new guy Gettemy stormed in late with loads of cash and the backing of many Christian conservatives and the boob-loving GoDaddy.com guy. Who says politics doesn’t make for strange bed fellows.

Then there is Chris Reed. You’ve got to admire the guy’s dedication, but he’s made some critical errors. First of all, don’t send mean, rude emails to people that they can copy and paste into blogs for everyone to see. And, like Funk, don’t be angry all the time. I think there’s a country song about that. I think his heart is in the right place, but I think he needs to mature as a candidate and as a man before he’s ready to be in Congress.

And now for the numbers:

Miller-Meeks 33%
Gettemy 33%
Rathje 26%
Reed 8%

That’s right folks, it’s going to convention.

1st CD

I’m going to be really honest here and tell you that I don’t know much about this race. I know there are two guys. One is a pretty solid, standard conservative (Ben Lange). The other is another angry Tea Party candidate who has refused to support the other guy if he doesn’t win.

I think we have to keep in mind that that 1st CD is a little more urban and a little more moderate, which I think will help Lange. Not to say that Lange himself is moderate, but I think slightly more moderate voters will be turned off by the angry Tea Party guy.

Ben Lange 56%
Will Johnson 44%

Sec. of State

Young and energetic wins the race.

Matt Schultz 53%
George Eichhorn 47%


Treasurer of State

Both are good guys, but Dave Jamison is just more well known and would probably have less of a learning curve since he’s already a county treasurer.

Dave Jamison 61%
Jim Heavens 39%


About the Author

Battleground Iowa
Emily Geiger writes from a conservative perspective on everything from politics to religion to pop culture. Like the original Emily of Revolutionary War era, this Emily is delivering important messages crucial to winning the raging war of the time, but today, this is a culture war rather than a traditional one. And, like the original Emily, sometimes it takes a woman to do (or say) that which lesser men lack the courage and tenacity to do.




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