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May 4th, 2010

Rasmussen shows Branstad and BVP Leading Culver, Grassley’s Lead on Conlin Narrows

partisan_faceoff_440Rasmussen Reports is out with another one of their polls. You know, it would be nice if someone would poll the GOP primaries in the 2nd and 3rd Districts as well as the gubernatorial race. Now that would be newsworthy. I don’t really care to see another general election poll until after the primaries.

Basically, Rasmussen shows that the Republican gubernatorial candidates maintained their lead over Governor Chet Culver.

Branstad tops Culver 53% to 38%
Vander Plaats tops Culver 45% to 41%
Culver tops Roberts 43% to 41%

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In the senate race, Senator Grassley leads Roxanne Conlin 53% to 40%

In the governor’s race, not much has changed. In the Branstad/Culver matchup, Branstad is +1 and Culver is +2 since Rasmussen’s last poll. In the Vander Plaats/Culver matchup, Vander Plaats is +3 while Culver is +1. All of those numbers are within the margin of error so I don’t really think that says a whole lot except that whoever the Republican nominee is will be expected to beat Culver.

Lets not forget that beating an incumbent governor hasn’t happened in Iowa for five decades. I don’t care what the polls say – beating Culver this fall will be no easy task.

I know that talking money has become sacrilegious recently, but it’s going to take at least $8 million bucks to beat an incumbent governor. To be really honest, I bet both sides spend more than that. I’m not saying that you have to support the guy who can raise money, but the Vander Plaats and Roberts camps need to be thinking of ways to raise that kind of coin if successful on June 8th.

Anyone who thinks that winning the nomination guarantees you a big pot of money run their campaign with is living in a fantasy world. That goes for everyone, Terry Branstad included. That’s a lot of money, more than you can probably raise within the borders of Iowa.

Grassley makes me nervous, but I’ll feel a lot better when he is back here in Iowa making the rounds. Grassley’s support has slipped slightly. He’s down from 55% to 53%, while Conlin gained 4 points.

Now I don’t think that a liberal like Roxanne Conlin can win in this environment, but I do think that Grassley needs to run a disciplined campaign against her. And let me be clear, Grassley needs to have campaign people, not members of his staff posing as campaign aides. There is a huge difference.

Unlike every other race in the state, Grassley and Conlin have millions of dollars to blow on this race. I can’t wait till the general rolls around in this race. This will be the nastiest race in Iowa this year, mark my words.

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About the Author

Krusty Konservative
Herschel Krustofski is the pseudonym for the anonymous author of Krusty Konservative, a blog which focuses on Iowa Politics. Created in February of 2006, Krusty Konservative is the undisputed heavyweight champion of the Iowa blogosphere. Since its conception, Krusty Konservative has never shied from tackling controversial issues, and providing insight to the inner workings of Republican politics in Iowa.




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