(Ottumwa, IA) – The campaign of Dr. Mariannette Miller-Meeks released new polling data today showing that the race for Congress in Iowa’s 2nd district is quickly becoming one of the most competitive in the nation, as voters are fed up with Dave Loebsack’s big-spending, big government agenda.
A poll of 400 likely voters conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research between June 23rd and June 25th found among those most likely to vote, four year incumbent Dave Loebsack leads Miller-Meeks by only 5 points – a statistical dead heat. Additionally, among those same voters, 47% say it’s time to give a new person a chance, compared with 36% who believe Loebsack deserves re-election. Two years ago, President Obama carried this district with 60%, and Loebsack with 57% of the vote.
“These numbers are very encouraging for our campaign and show that Loebsack’s support is a mile wide but only an inch deep. And we are encouraged by the fact that our cash on hand is nearly double what Loebsack had on hand at the same point in 2006, before his November victory,” said Tracie Gibler, campaign manager. “Mariannette has been working every hour of every day, and this polling data verifies everything we have been hearing in conversations up and down the district with average voters – it’s time to create jobs, it’s time to stop spending money we don’t have, and Loebsack is the problem.”
Additionally, after voters were read positive and negative statements about both candidates, Miller-Meeks jumped out to a 44-40% lead. Therefore, with sufficient resources to communicate her positions and Loebsack’s failed record, Miller-Meeks is in a very strong position heading into the fall campaign.
General Overview: Loebsack Is Vulnerable, Dr. Miller-Meeks Can Win
Recent polling shows that GOP congressional candidate Miller-Meeks is in a very competitive race that if properly funded and messaged, can win.
Consider the following points:
• Among those most likely to vote Loebsack has a near fatal reelect, where a 47% plurality say it’s time to give a new person a chance compared to only 36% who say the incumbent has done his job well enough to deserve reelection. Typically, incumbents with 40% reelects or lower are vulnerable because it means they don’t have a strong base of support, while a significant sentiment for change exists.
• Among those most likely to vote the congressional “generic” ballot is a statistical dead heat (at 38R/39D). This is significant because even though President Obama carried this district in 2008 the poll proves voters lean Republican this year and will split their tickets for a GOP candidate.
• Despite 4 years in office incumbent Democratic Congressman Dave Loebsack has a weak image, at 39% to 32% favorable to unfavorable (or slightly better than 1:1) among those most likely to vote. In comparison, Miller-Meeks has a better than 2:1 ratio in hard name ID including total name ID of 78% after a convincing primary win, with more room to grow.
• On the initial ballot test among those most likely to vote the race is a statistical dead heat (at 46/41 Loebsack). Moreover, Loebsack holds only a tenuous 29% to 22% lead in intensity among those “definitely” voting for either candidate, which shows his support is a mile wide but only an inch deep.
• After voters learn more about both candidates the “informed” ballot shifts to a 44/40 Miller-Meeks lead, including an even stronger 49/38 Miller-Meeks lead among those most likely to vote.
Methodology: Poll was conducted June 23-25 with 400 likely voters for the Mariannette Miller-Meeks for Congress Committee. Voters with prior vote history were contacted with a special emphasis on G09, G07 and G06 to reflect turnout in a non-presidential year. Plus, a “vote intensity screen” was used to filter out voters unlikely to vote in the upcoming election. The margin of error for a 400 sample size is +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence level.
Susquehanna Polling and Research is a Pennsylvania-based, survey research and polling firm for GOP clients and conducts polls both nationwide and in many Northeastern and Midwestern states.
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