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April 1st, 2010

Another Day, Another Poll – Branstad Continues to Thump Culver

teb hsThe following is from Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies

Among likely Iowa general election voters, Governor Chet Culver trails one Republican primary candidate, is statistically tied with another, and leads Republican candidate Rod Roberts. The strongest Republican challenger to Chet Culver is former Governor Terry Branstad. The Culver‐Branstad ballot test shows Terry Branstad with a 16 point lead over Chet Culver, 50% to 34%, with 8% supporting another candidate and 8% undecided.

The Culver‐Vander Plaats ballot test has Chet Culver in a tie with 2006 Republican Lieutenant Governor Candidate Bob Vander Plaats, 40% to 39%, 8% for another candidate, and 13% undecided.

Chet Culver leads State Representative Rod Roberts by 6 points, 38% to 32%, 12% for another candidate, and 18% undecided.

Among the key voter subgroup of Iowa independent voters, which Magellan projects to constitute 25% of voter turnout in November, Chet Culver trails Terry Branstad by 34 points, 55% to 21%, trails Bob Vander Plaats by 7 points 36% to 29%, and is statistically tied with Rod Roberts 28% to 29%. All three gubernatorial ballot tests by key voter subgroup follow.

Chet Culver’s image rating among likely voters is currently “upside down” with 33% having a favorable opinion of him and 58% having an unfavorable opinion of him. Among his base of Democrat voters, only 62% have a favorable image and 31% have an unfavorable image.

His job approval rating is similar to his image rating with 30% approving of the job he is doing and 56% disapproving. Among independent voters, only 19% approve of the job he is doing and 63% disapprove. Clearly, Governor Culver is in trouble with his base and independent voters.

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies has released the results of an automated survey of 1,353N likely Iowa general election voters. This survey has a margin of error of 2.7% at the 95% confidence interval. The interviewing was conducted on March 30th, 2010. The survey topline, crosstab and presentation results are available for download at www.MagellanStrategies.com.

Here are some interesting tidbits from this poll.

1. President Obama’s approval rating has plummeted. In most polls he has been able to stay near the 50% mark, this poll shows him in the low forties.

2. The generic congressional ballot remains strong for Republicans. Republicans lead Democrats 40 to 33 in the congressional generic ballot. That’s good news for whoever emerges out of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd district primaries.

3. Vander Plaats and Roberts have a higher unfavorable rating than favorable. Seems a little odd.

4. Branstad’s numbers are solid across the board.

Click here to see all the poll results. (PDF)

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About the Author

Craig Robinson
Craig Robinson is the founder and editor-in-chief of TheIowaRepublican.com, a political news and commentary site he launched in March of 2009. Robinson’s political analysis is respected across party lines, which has allowed him to build a good rapport with journalist across the country. Robinson has also been featured on Iowa Public Television’s Iowa Press, ABC’s This Week, and other local television and radio programs. Campaign’s & Elections Magazine recognized Robinson as one of the top influencers of the 2012 Iowa Caucuses. A 2013 Politico article sited Robinson and TheIowaRepublican.com as the “premier example” of Republican operatives across the country starting up their own political news sites. His website has been repeatedly praised as the best political blog in Iowa by the Washington Post, and in January of 2015, Politico included him on the list of local reporters that matter in the early presidential states. Robinson got his first taste of Iowa politics in 1999 while serving as Steve Forbes’ southeast Iowa field coordinator where he was responsible for organizing 27 Iowa counties. In 2007, Robinson served as the Political Director of the Republican Party of Iowa where he was responsible for organizing the 2007 Iowa Straw Poll and the 2008 First-in-the-Nation Iowa Caucuses. Following the caucuses, he created his own political news and commentary site, TheIowaRepublcian.com. Robinson is also the President of Global Intermediate, a national mail and political communications firm with offices in West Des Moines, Iowa, and Washington, D.C. Robinson utilizes his fundraising and communications background to service Global’s growing client roster with digital and print marketing. Robinson is a native of Goose Lake, Iowa, and a 1999 graduate of St. Ambrose University in Davenport, where he earned degrees in history and political science. Robinson lives in Ankeny, Iowa, with his wife, Amanda, and son, Luke. He is an active member of the Lutheran Church of Hope.




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