The following is from Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies
Among likely Iowa general election voters, Governor Chet Culver trails one Republican primary candidate, is statistically tied with another, and leads Republican candidate Rod Roberts. The strongest Republican challenger to Chet Culver is former Governor Terry Branstad. The Culver‐Branstad ballot test shows Terry Branstad with a 16 point lead over Chet Culver, 50% to 34%, with 8% supporting another candidate and 8% undecided.
The Culver‐Vander Plaats ballot test has Chet Culver in a tie with 2006 Republican Lieutenant Governor Candidate Bob Vander Plaats, 40% to 39%, 8% for another candidate, and 13% undecided.
Chet Culver leads State Representative Rod Roberts by 6 points, 38% to 32%, 12% for another candidate, and 18% undecided.
Among the key voter subgroup of Iowa independent voters, which Magellan projects to constitute 25% of voter turnout in November, Chet Culver trails Terry Branstad by 34 points, 55% to 21%, trails Bob Vander Plaats by 7 points 36% to 29%, and is statistically tied with Rod Roberts 28% to 29%. All three gubernatorial ballot tests by key voter subgroup follow.
Chet Culver’s image rating among likely voters is currently “upside down” with 33% having a favorable opinion of him and 58% having an unfavorable opinion of him. Among his base of Democrat voters, only 62% have a favorable image and 31% have an unfavorable image.
His job approval rating is similar to his image rating with 30% approving of the job he is doing and 56% disapproving. Among independent voters, only 19% approve of the job he is doing and 63% disapprove. Clearly, Governor Culver is in trouble with his base and independent voters.
Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies has released the results of an automated survey of 1,353N likely Iowa general election voters. This survey has a margin of error of 2.7% at the 95% confidence interval. The interviewing was conducted on March 30th, 2010. The survey topline, crosstab and presentation results are available for download at www.MagellanStrategies.com.
Here are some interesting tidbits from this poll.
1. President Obama’s approval rating has plummeted. In most polls he has been able to stay near the 50% mark, this poll shows him in the low forties.
2. The generic congressional ballot remains strong for Republicans. Republicans lead Democrats 40 to 33 in the congressional generic ballot. That’s good news for whoever emerges out of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd district primaries.
3. Vander Plaats and Roberts have a higher unfavorable rating than favorable. Seems a little odd.
4. Branstad’s numbers are solid across the board.
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